IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality

Brazil's demographic transition 1980-2023 (TFR fall from ~4.0 to ~1.6) coincides with inequality decline post-2000 (Gini from ~0.60 to ~0.53).

The hypothesis tests whether working-age-share rise contributed to inequality decline via labour-market tightening at the bottom of the wage distribution. The mechanism predicts a negative association between working-age share and Gini, partially mediated by minimum-wage real-value gains.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality

PARTIAL — coef=+1.172, p=0.208 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+1.172, p=0.208 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe decomposition design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Working age population share
Possible pathway
  • Real minimum wage
  • Lfp total
What we checked
  • Inequality disposable income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality
1007550250198020022023BRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gini_disposable_income across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Brazil's demographic transition 1980-2023 (TFR fall from ~4.0 to ~1.6) coincides with inequality decline post-2000 (Gini from ~0.60 to ~0.53). The hypothesis tests whether working-age-share rise contributed to inequality decline via labour-market tightening at the bottom of the wage distribution. The mechanism predicts a negative association between working-age share and Gini, partially mediated by minimum-wage real-value gains.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if working-age-share coefficient is negative on Gini at p<0.10 and demographic channel accounts for at least 15% of post-2000 Gini decline. REFUTED if working-age share is wrong-signed, insignificant, or attributable share < 5%.

formal test & threshold
test:      time_series_brazil_demographic_inequality_decomp
threshold: coef_wap < 0 AND p < 0.10 AND demographic_share_of_gini_decline >= 0.15

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Brazil time series, decomposition of Gini change into demographic, minimum-wage, and productivity channels; report fraction of post-2000 Gini decline attributable to demographic vs minimum-wage policy contributions.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gini_disposable_income
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
working_age_population_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
real_minimum_wage
channel
ilostat:UNE_2EAP_SEX_AGE_RT_Atier 2
log
lfp_total
channel
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.ZStier 2
level
labour_productivity
control
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_brazil_demographic_transition_inequality

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+1.172, p=0.208 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Brazil's demographic transition 1980-2023 (TFR fall from ~4.0 to ~1.6) coincides with inequality decline post-2000 (Gini from ~0.60 to ~0.53). The hypothesis tests whether working-age-share rise contributed to inequality decline via labour-market tightening at the bottom of the wage distribution. The mechanism predicts a negative association between working-age share and Gini, partially mediated by minimum-wage real-value gains.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if working-age-share coefficient is negative on Gini at p<0.10 and demographic channel accounts for at least 15% of post-2000 Gini decline. REFUTED if working-age share is wrong-signed, insignificant, or attributable share < 5%.
  • Falsification test: time_series_brazil_demographic_inequality_decomp

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS time-series fallback
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.172
  • Std error: 0.9312
  • p-value: 0.208
  • Observations: 25, countries: 1
  • Within R²: 0.831
  • Fixed effects: entity=False, time=False
  • Clustering: HAC(maxlags=4)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_disposable_income (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • ilostat:UNE_2EAP_SEX_AGE_RT_A → real_minimum_wage (decomposition_channels, publisher=ilostat, n=10188)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.ZS → lfp_total (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8302)
  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity (controls, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.