IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_canada_points_system_immigration

Canada's points-based immigration system (introduced 1967, enhanced 2002 IRPA) selects on human capital and produces a foreign-born workforce with above-average tertiary attainment.

The hypothesis tests whether Canada's foreign-born tertiary-attainment share exceeds the OECD destination median by at least 10 percentage points 2000-2023, and whether Canadian per-capita output growth contains a measurable high-skill-immigration contribution above non-points-system comparators.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_canada_points_system_immigration

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'points_system_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether points system indicator is actually linked to better or worse foreign born tertiary share from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'points_system_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Points system indicator
What we checked
  • Foreign born tertiary share
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_canada_points_system_immigration
1007550250199020072023CANUSAGBRAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show foreign_born_tertiary_share across 13 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_canada_points_system_immigration. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_canada_points_system_immigration/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:33Z

Canada's points-based immigration system (introduced 1967, enhanced 2002 IRPA) selects on human capital and produces a foreign-born workforce with above-average tertiary attainment. The hypothesis tests whether Canada's foreign-born tertiary-attainment share exceeds the OECD destination median by at least 10 percentage points 2000-2023, and whether Canadian per-capita output growth contains a measurable high-skill-immigration contribution above non-points-system comparators.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Canada's foreign-born tertiary-attainment share exceeds the OECD destination median (excl AUS, NZL) by at least 10 pp on average 2000-2023, AND points-system country fixed-effect coefficient on foreign-born tertiary share is positive and significant at p<0.05. REFUTED if Canadian premium is < 5 pp or coefficient is insignificant.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_canada_points_system_skill_premium
threshold: canada_tertiary_premium >= 10.0 AND coef_points_system > 0 AND p < 0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
13 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
foreign_born_tertiary_share
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.IMDtier 2
level
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
points_system_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CAN; CAN = points-system reference; comparators = 0 unless they introduced equivalent points systems.tier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
total_migrant_share
control
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_canada_points_system_immigration

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'points_system_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Canada's points-based immigration system (introduced 1967, enhanced 2002 IRPA) selects on human capital and produces a foreign-born workforce with above-average tertiary attainment. The hypothesis tests whether Canada's foreign-born tertiary-attainment share exceeds the OECD destination median by at least 10 percentage points 2000-2023, and whether Canadian per-capita output growth contains a measurable high-skill-immigration contribution above non-points-system comparators.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Canada's foreign-born tertiary-attainment share exceeds the OECD destination median (excl AUS, NZL) by at least 10 pp on average 2000-2023, AND points-system country fixed-effect coefficient on foreign-born tertiary share is positive and significant at p<0.05. REFUTED if Canadian premium is < 5 pp or coefficient is insignificant.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_canada_points_system_skill_premium

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'points_system_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.IMD,DSD_MIG@DF_MIG_EMP_EDU,1.0 → foreign_born_tertiary_share (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=359)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for CAN; CAN = points-system reference; comparators = 0 unless they introduced equivalent points systems. → points_system_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=442)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → total_migrant_share (controls, publisher=un_desa, n=16)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.