IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth

The Chinese one-child policy (1980-2015) produced a measurable long-run drag on per-capita growth in the post-2010 period via accelerated working-age decline and a higher dependency ratio than counterfactual fertility paths would predict.

Compared to a synthetic control built from comparable middle-income East/South Asian countries, China should show a significantly steeper decline in working-age share post-2015 and lower per-capita growth decomposable to the demographic channel.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+7.502, |gap|/pre_sd=8, p_perm=0.2 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+7.502, |gap|/pre_sd=8, p_perm=0.2 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1970 to 2023, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • One child policy indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per capita
  • Working age share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth
1007550250197019972023CHNINDIDNVNMPHLTHAMYS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita across 10 sampled countries over 1970–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:51:39Z

The Chinese one-child policy (1980-2015) produced a measurable long-run drag on per-capita growth in the post-2010 period via accelerated working-age decline and a higher dependency ratio than counterfactual fertility paths would predict. Compared to a synthetic control built from comparable middle-income East/South Asian countries, China should show a significantly steeper decline in working-age share post-2015 and lower per-capita growth decomposable to the demographic channel.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if China's working-age share post-2015 is at least 3 percentage points below the synthetic counterfactual AND the implied per-capita growth gap exceeds 0.4 percentage points annualised over 2015-2023, with placebo-test rank in bottom 10% of donor-pool placebo runs. REFUTED if working-age gap is smaller than 1pp or per-capita growth gap is wrong-signed/insignificant in placebo terms.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_control_china_demographic_growth_gap
threshold: wap_gap >= 3.0 AND growth_gap >= 0.4 AND placebo_rank <= 0.10

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Sample
10 countries · 1970 – 2023
Evidence type
causal

Synthetic-control estimator (Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller); pre-treatment fit window 1960-1979; treatment 1980-2015; post-treatment outcome window 2015-2023 for working-age share and growth decomposition.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log
working_age_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
one_child_policy_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CHN years 1980-2015tier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_initial
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
total_fertility_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_china_one_child_long_run_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+7.502, |gap|/pre_sd=8, p_perm=0.2 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Chinese one-child policy (1980-2015) produced a measurable long-run drag on per-capita growth in the post-2010 period via accelerated working-age decline and a higher dependency ratio than counterfactual fertility paths would predict. Compared to a synthetic control built from comparable middle-income East/South Asian countries, China should show a significantly steeper decline in working-age share post-2015 and lower per-capita growth decomposable to the demographic channel.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if China's working-age share post-2015 is at least 3 percentage points below the synthetic counterfactual AND the implied per-capita growth gap exceeds 0.4 percentage points annualised over 2015-2023, with placebo-test rank in bottom 10% of donor-pool placebo runs. REFUTED if working-age gap is smaller than 1pp or per-capita growth gap is wrong-signed/insignificant in placebo terms.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CHN
  • event_year: 1980
  • n_donors: 9
  • donor_weights (top): {'PAK': 0.5585, 'THA': 0.4415, 'IND': 0.0, 'IDN': 0.0, 'VNM': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 2.6415852025358357
  • pre_period_sd: 0.9328921289589436
  • mean_post_gap: 7.501819014849064
  • end_period_gap: 5.283412523113313
  • post_period_years: [1980, 2023]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.2
  • n_placebos: 9
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_share (outcome, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, n=8325)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:51:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.