IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages

Post-1990 (and especially post-EU-accession 2004/2007) outmigration from Eastern Europe (POL, ROU, BGR, LTU, LVA, EST, HUN, SVK) has produced upward pressure on real wages at origin via labour-supply contraction.

The hypothesis predicts a positive association between cumulative net out-migrant share and real-wage growth at origin over 2004-2023, conditional on productivity growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages

PARTIAL — coef=+1.068e-07, p=0.535 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+1.068e-07, p=0.535 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Net migration rate
  • Cumulative outmigrant share
What we checked
  • Real wage index
  • Real compensation per employee
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages
1007550250199020072023POLROUBGRLTULVAESTHUN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_wage_index across 11 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-1990 (and especially post-EU-accession 2004/2007) outmigration from Eastern Europe (POL, ROU, BGR, LTU, LVA, EST, HUN, SVK) has produced upward pressure on real wages at origin via labour-supply contraction. The hypothesis predicts a positive association between cumulative net out-migrant share and real-wage growth at origin over 2004-2023, conditional on productivity growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if cumulative outmigrant share has positive coefficient on real-wage growth at p<0.05 controlling for labour productivity, with magnitude >= 0.2pp wage growth per pp of cumulative outmigrant share. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absorbed by productivity control.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_outmigration_origin_wages
threshold: coef_outmigrant_share > 0.2 AND p < 0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_wage_index
outcome
ilostat:EAR_4MTH_SEX_RTtier 2
log
real_compensation_per_employee
outcome
eurostat:nama_10_a10tier 1
log
net_migration_rate
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETMtier 2
level
cumulative_outmigrant_share
treatment
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level
labour_productivity
control
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_eastern_europe_outmigration_wages

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+1.068e-07, p=0.535 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-1990 (and especially post-EU-accession 2004/2007) outmigration from Eastern Europe (POL, ROU, BGR, LTU, LVA, EST, HUN, SVK) has produced upward pressure on real wages at origin via labour-supply contraction. The hypothesis predicts a positive association between cumulative net out-migrant share and real-wage growth at origin over 2004-2023, conditional on productivity growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if cumulative outmigrant share has positive coefficient on real-wage growth at p<0.05 controlling for labour productivity, with magnitude >= 0.2pp wage growth per pp of cumulative outmigrant share. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absorbed by productivity control.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_outmigration_origin_wages

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.068e-07
  • Std error: 1.72e-07
  • p-value: 0.535
  • Observations: 275, countries: 11
  • Within R²: 0.606
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • ilostat:EAR_4MTH_SEX_RT → real_wage_index (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=912)
  • eurostat:nama_10_a10 → real_compensation_per_employee (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1424)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETM → net_migration_rate (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17226)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → cumulative_outmigrant_share (treatment, publisher=un_desa, n=16)
  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity (controls, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.