IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_female_lfp_growth_panel

Across countries 1980-2023, increases in female labour-force participation are positively associated with per-capita output growth, with substantial heterogeneity by income level and institutional context.

The hypothesis predicts a positive coefficient on female LFP in panel FE estimation, with magnitude implying that closing the female-male LFP gap by 10pp is associated with roughly 0.3-0.6pp higher annualised per-capita growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_female_lfp_growth_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.2009, p=0.313 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.2009, p=0.313 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Female lfp
  • Female male lfp gap
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_female_lfp_growth_panel
1007550250198020022023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 38 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_female_lfp_growth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_female_lfp_growth_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:34Z

Across countries 1980-2023, increases in female labour-force participation are positively associated with per-capita output growth, with substantial heterogeneity by income level and institutional context. The hypothesis predicts a positive coefficient on female LFP in panel FE estimation, with magnitude implying that closing the female-male LFP gap by 10pp is associated with roughly 0.3-0.6pp higher annualised per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if female LFP coefficient on per-capita growth is positive at p<0.05, with magnitude between 0.02 and 0.06 (i.e. 0.3-0.6pp growth per 10pp LFP increase), AND holds in both high-income and middle-income subsamples. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absent in middle-income subsample.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_female_lfp_growth_with_subsample
threshold: 0.02 <= coef_female_lfp <= 0.06 AND p < 0.05 AND middle_income_subsample_significant

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
female_lfp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZStier 2
level
female_male_lfp_gap
treatment
constructed:SL.TLF.CACT.MA.ZS - SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZStier 5
level
gdp_per_capita_initial
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
total_fertility_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level
tertiary_attainment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_female_lfp_growth_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.2009, p=0.313 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across countries 1980-2023, increases in female labour-force participation are positively associated with per-capita output growth, with substantial heterogeneity by income level and institutional context. The hypothesis predicts a positive coefficient on female LFP in panel FE estimation, with magnitude implying that closing the female-male LFP gap by 10pp is associated with roughly 0.3-0.6pp higher annualised per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if female LFP coefficient on per-capita growth is positive at p<0.05, with magnitude between 0.02 and 0.06 (i.e. 0.3-0.6pp growth per 10pp LFP increase), AND holds in both high-income and middle-income subsamples. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absent in middle-income subsample.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_female_lfp_growth_with_subsample

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.2009
  • Std error: 0.1986
  • p-value: 0.313
  • Observations: 333, countries: 31
  • Within R²: 0.0238
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS → female_lfp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8302)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.IN → total_fertility_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14445)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: SL.TLF.CACT.MA.ZS - SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS (treatment, name=female_male_lfp_gap) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.