IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution

Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the median gender pay gap has narrowed but the rate of narrowing has slowed since 2010, with the residual gap concentrated in (a) parenthood penalties, (b) occupational segregation, and (c) hours-of-work differences.

The hypothesis documents the OECD median pay-gap trajectory, tests whether the post-2010 slowdown is statistically significant against the 1990-2010 trend, and reports cross-country variation.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 25 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Median gender pay gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution
1007550250199020072023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show median_gender_pay_gap across 25 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the median gender pay gap has narrowed but the rate of narrowing has slowed since 2010, with the residual gap concentrated in (a) parenthood penalties, (b) occupational segregation, and (c) hours-of-work differences. The hypothesis documents the OECD median pay-gap trajectory, tests whether the post-2010 slowdown is statistically significant against the 1990-2010 trend, and reports cross-country variation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) OECD-median gender pay gap declines by at least 5pp 1990-2023, AND (b) post-2010 trend slope (in pp/year) is significantly less negative than pre-2010 slope at p<0.10. REFUTED if median gap reduces by < 2pp or post-2010 slowdown is indistinguishable from continued trend.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_pay_gap_with_slope_change_test
threshold: pay_gap_reduction >= 5.0 AND post2010_slope_change_p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
25 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Two-way FE; report year-fixed-effect trajectory and test for slope change at 2010 (Chow-style test or interaction with post-2010 indicator).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
median_gender_pay_gap
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
level
female_lfp
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZStier 2
level
tertiary_attainment_female
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.FE.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_gender_pay_gap_oecd_evolution

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across OECD countries 1990-2023, the median gender pay gap has narrowed but the rate of narrowing has slowed since 2010, with the residual gap concentrated in (a) parenthood penalties, (b) occupational segregation, and (c) hours-of-work differences. The hypothesis documents the OECD median pay-gap trajectory, tests whether the post-2010 slowdown is statistically significant against the 1990-2010 trend, and reports cross-country variation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) OECD-median gender pay gap declines by at least 5pp 1990-2023, AND (b) post-2010 trend slope (in pp/year) is significantly less negative than pre-2010 slope at p<0.10. REFUTED if median gap reduces by < 2pp or post-2010 slowdown is indistinguishable from continued trend.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_pay_gap_with_slope_change_test

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_EARNINGS@DF_GENDER_WAGE_GAP,1.0 → median_gender_pay_gap (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=761)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS → female_lfp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8302)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.FE.ZS → tertiary_attainment_female (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1401)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.