IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run

Germany's Gastarbeiter programme (1955-1973) and subsequent family-reunification waves produced a long-run Turkish-origin and Southern-European-origin foreign-born population that, despite official rhetoric of temporary stay, became permanent.

The hypothesis tests whether the second-generation Gastarbeiter-origin population shows persistent labour-market gaps relative to native-born Germans, controlling for education, and whether the Gastarbeiter cohort's long-run contribution to working-age share averaged at least 1pp over 1980-2023.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (29) obs

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether gastarbeiter phase indicator is actually linked to better or worse foreign born share population from 1955 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient pre (0) or post (29) obs

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1955 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gastarbeiter phase indicator
What we checked
  • Foreign born share population
  • Foreign native employment gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run
1007550250195519892023DEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show foreign_born_share_population across 1 sampled countries over 1955–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T12:34:13Z

Germany's Gastarbeiter programme (1955-1973) and subsequent family-reunification waves produced a long-run Turkish-origin and Southern-European-origin foreign-born population that, despite official rhetoric of temporary stay, became permanent. The hypothesis tests whether the second-generation Gastarbeiter-origin population shows persistent labour-market gaps relative to native-born Germans, controlling for education, and whether the Gastarbeiter cohort's long-run contribution to working-age share averaged at least 1pp over 1980-2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if DEU foreign-born share rises by at least 5pp 1955-2000 AND second-generation employment gap (post-2005, where measurable) is < 5pp AND working- age share contribution from migrant cohort exceeds 1pp on average 1980-2023. REFUTED if foreign-born share rise < 3pp or working-age contribution is below 0.5pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run_pattern
threshold: foreign_born_share_rise >= 5.0 AND working_age_contribution >= 1.0

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
1 countries · 1955 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

DEU time-series description; report foreign-born share trajectory by phase, and second-generation employment gap (where available; Eurostat LFS post-2005 only).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
foreign_born_share_population
outcome
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level
foreign_native_employment_gap
outcome
eurostat:lfsa_ergantier 1
difference
gastarbeiter_phase_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 = 1955-1973 (active recruitment); 2 = 1974-1990 (family reunification); 3 = 1990-2023 (post-reunification).tier 5
indicator
tertiary_attainment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient pre (0) or post (29) obs

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Germany's Gastarbeiter programme (1955-1973) and subsequent family-reunification waves produced a long-run Turkish-origin and Southern-European-origin foreign-born population that, despite official rhetoric of temporary stay, became permanent. The hypothesis tests whether the second-generation Gastarbeiter-origin population shows persistent labour-market gaps relative to native-born Germans, controlling for education, and whether the Gastarbeiter cohort's long-run contribution to working-age share averaged at least 1pp over 1980-2023.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if DEU foreign-born share rises by at least 5pp 1955-2000 AND second-generation employment gap (post-2005, where measurable) is < 5pp AND working- age share contribution from migrant cohort exceeds 1pp on average 1980-2023. REFUTED if foreign-born share rise < 3pp or working-age contribution is below 0.5pp.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_germany_gastarbeiter_long_run_pattern

Comparison

  • Error: insufficient pre (0) or post (29) obs

Extracted threshold: {'pp': 1.0}

Variables resolved

  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → foreign_born_share_population (outcome, publisher=un_desa, n=16)
  • eurostat:lfsa_ergan → foreign_native_employment_gap (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1032)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: 1 = 1955-1973 (active recruitment); 2 = 1974-1990 (family reunification); 3 = 1990-2023 (post-reunification). (treatment, name=gastarbeiter_phase_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-04T12:34:13+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.