IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth

Korea, Taiwan, and Ireland's rapid higher-education expansion (tertiary attainment rising from <15% to >50% of working-age cohorts within roughly 30 years) is associated with measurable acceleration in per-capita output growth in these countries, particularly pronounced in the high-tech-export-share component.

The hypothesis tests whether these three countries experienced higher-than-comparator per-capita growth conditional on capital deepening, attributable to the human-capital channel.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth

PARTIAL — coef=-0.3202, p=0.461 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.3202, p=0.461 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 10 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tertiary attainment share
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Total factor productivity
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth
1007550250198020022023KORTWNIRLJPNESPPRTGRC
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 10 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z

Korea, Taiwan, and Ireland's rapid higher-education expansion (tertiary attainment rising from <15% to >50% of working-age cohorts within roughly 30 years) is associated with measurable acceleration in per-capita output growth in these countries, particularly pronounced in the high-tech-export-share component. The hypothesis tests whether these three countries experienced higher-than-comparator per-capita growth conditional on capital deepening, attributable to the human-capital channel.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if tertiary-attainment-share coefficient on per-capita growth is positive at p<0.05, magnitude implying a 10pp tertiary-share rise predicts at least 0.5pp annualised per-capita growth, AND KOR/IRL country fixed effects are positive vs comparator-mean. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, magnitude < 0.2pp per 10pp share rise, or KOR/IRL FE not above comparator mean.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_tertiary_growth_with_country_fe
threshold: coef_tertiary > 0.05 AND p < 0.05 AND korea_irl_fe > comparator_mean_fe

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
10 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
total_factor_productivity
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
tertiary_attainment_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_initial
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_higher_ed_expansion_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.3202, p=0.461 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Korea, Taiwan, and Ireland's rapid higher-education expansion (tertiary attainment rising from <15% to >50% of working-age cohorts within roughly 30 years) is associated with measurable acceleration in per-capita output growth in these countries, particularly pronounced in the high-tech-export-share component. The hypothesis tests whether these three countries experienced higher-than-comparator per-capita growth conditional on capital deepening, attributable to the human-capital channel.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if tertiary-attainment-share coefficient on per-capita growth is positive at p<0.05, magnitude implying a 10pp tertiary-share rise predicts at least 0.5pp annualised per-capita growth, AND KOR/IRL country fixed effects are positive vs comparator-mean. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, magnitude < 0.2pp per 10pp share rise, or KOR/IRL FE not above comparator mean.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_tertiary_growth_with_country_fe

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.3202
  • Std error: 0.4328
  • p-value: 0.461
  • Observations: 119, countries: 9
  • Within R²: -0.0927
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.