IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation

Italy and Spain 1995-2023 exhibit a coupled demographic-growth stagnation: sustained sub-replacement fertility (TFR ~1.2-1.4) since the 1980s feeds into post-2008 working-age contraction, which decomposes as a substantial share of the post-2008 per-capita growth shortfall vs the EU-15 median.

The hypothesis predicts working-age-share decline accounts for at least 25% of Italy's and Spain's per-capita growth gap to the EU-15 median over 2008-2023.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation

PARTIAL — coef=-1.347, p=0.257 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-1.347, p=0.257 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
Possible pathway
  • Working age population share
  • Total fertility rate
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation
1007550250199520092023ITAESPFRADEUNLDBELAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 13 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z

Italy and Spain 1995-2023 exhibit a coupled demographic-growth stagnation: sustained sub-replacement fertility (TFR ~1.2-1.4) since the 1980s feeds into post-2008 working-age contraction, which decomposes as a substantial share of the post-2008 per-capita growth shortfall vs the EU-15 median. The hypothesis predicts working-age-share decline accounts for at least 25% of Italy's and Spain's per-capita growth gap to the EU-15 median over 2008-2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if working-age-share contribution accounts for >= 25% of ITA growth gap and >= 25% of ESP growth gap to EU-15 median 2008-2023. REFUTED if working-age contribution < 10% in either country.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_decomp_southern_europe_demographics
threshold: wap_share_of_growth_gap_ITA >= 0.25 AND wap_share_of_growth_gap_ESP >= 0.25

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
13 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE decomposition of per-capita growth on working-age share, fertility, migration, and controls; report fraction of ITA/ESP per-capita-growth gap to EU-15 median attributable to working-age share contribution.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
working_age_population_share
channel
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
total_fertility_rate
channel
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level
net_migration_rate
channel
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETMtier 2
level
gross_fixed_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
tertiary_attainment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_italy_spain_demographic_stagnation

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-1.347, p=0.257 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Italy and Spain 1995-2023 exhibit a coupled demographic-growth stagnation: sustained sub-replacement fertility (TFR ~1.2-1.4) since the 1980s feeds into post-2008 working-age contraction, which decomposes as a substantial share of the post-2008 per-capita growth shortfall vs the EU-15 median. The hypothesis predicts working-age-share decline accounts for at least 25% of Italy's and Spain's per-capita growth gap to the EU-15 median over 2008-2023.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if working-age-share contribution accounts for >= 25% of ITA growth gap and >= 25% of ESP growth gap to EU-15 median 2008-2023. REFUTED if working-age contribution < 10% in either country.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_decomp_southern_europe_demographics

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.347
  • Std error: 1.181
  • p-value: 0.257
  • Observations: 132, countries: 11
  • Within R²: 0.0648
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.IN → total_fertility_rate (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14445)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETM → net_migration_rate (decomposition_channels, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17226)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_fixed_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.