IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split

Across high-income destination countries 1995-2023, migration inflows have heterogeneous wage effects by skill: high-skill (tertiary-educated) inflows are associated with neutral or positive wage effects on natives, while low-skill inflows produce small negative wage effects on the bottom decile of native earners but no aggregate native-wage decline.

The hypothesis predicts the high-skill / low-skill differential exceeds 1 percentage point in decadal real-wage growth at the destination level.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0008588, p=0.909 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.0008588, p=0.909 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 17 country or place units from 1995 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Migrant share population
  • High skill migrant share
What we checked
  • Real median wage
  • Real wage bottom decile
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split
1007550250199520092023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPCAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_median_wage across 17 sampled countries over 1995–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:35Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across high-income destination countries 1995-2023, migration inflows have heterogeneous wage effects by skill: high-skill (tertiary-educated) inflows are associated with neutral or positive wage effects on natives, while low-skill inflows produce small negative wage effects on the bottom decile of native earners but no aggregate native-wage decline. The hypothesis predicts the high-skill / low-skill differential exceeds 1 percentage point in decadal real-wage growth at the destination level.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) high-skill migrant share has positive or non-negative coefficient on median real wage, (b) low-skill migrant share has negative coefficient on bottom-decile real wage with magnitude < 1pp per pp of share, (c) high-skill / low-skill differential on median wage > 1pp / decade. REFUTED if low-skill inflows produce large negative aggregate effects (>2pp per decade) or high-skill effects are negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_skill_split_wage_response
threshold: coef_high_skill >= 0 AND coef_low_skill_bottom_decile > -1.0 AND differential > 1.0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
17 countries · 1995 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_median_wage
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
log
real_wage_bottom_decile
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.SAEtier 2
log
migrant_share_population
treatment
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level
high_skill_migrant_share
treatment
oecd:OECD.ELS.IMDtier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_migration_inflows_wages_skill_split

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.0008588, p=0.909 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across high-income destination countries 1995-2023, migration inflows have heterogeneous wage effects by skill: high-skill (tertiary-educated) inflows are associated with neutral or positive wage effects on natives, while low-skill inflows produce small negative wage effects on the bottom decile of native earners but no aggregate native-wage decline. The hypothesis predicts the high-skill / low-skill differential exceeds 1 percentage point in decadal real-wage growth at the destination level.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) high-skill migrant share has positive or non-negative coefficient on median real wage, (b) low-skill migrant share has negative coefficient on bottom-decile real wage with magnitude < 1pp per pp of share, (c) high-skill / low-skill differential on median wage > 1pp / decade. REFUTED if low-skill inflows produce large negative aggregate effects (>2pp per decade) or high-skill effects are negative.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_skill_split_wage_response

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.0008588
  • Std error: 0.007478
  • p-value: 0.909
  • Observations: 57, countries: 12
  • Within R²: -1.01
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_EARNINGS@DF_EARNINGS,1.0 → real_median_wage (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=761)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.SAE,DSD_EARNINGS@DF_EARNINGS,1.0 → real_wage_bottom_decile (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=761)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → migrant_share_population (treatment, publisher=un_desa, n=16)
  • oecd:OECD.ELS.IMD,DSD_MIG@DF_MIG_EMP_EDU,1.0 → high_skill_migrant_share (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=359)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:35+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.