IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_remittance_corridor_dependency

In countries with major migrant-corridor remittance dependency (Philippines, Bangladesh, Honduras, Nepal, where remittances exceed 6% of GDP for sustained periods), remittances smooth household consumption but are associated with reduced domestic labour-force participation (Dutch-disease-via-labour) and elevated reservation wages.

The hypothesis predicts a negative panel association between remittance share of GDP and male prime-age LFP across the corridor sample 2000-2023.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_remittance_corridor_dependency

PARTIAL — coef=+0.06954, p=0.453 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.06954, p=0.453 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Remittance share income
What we checked
  • Lfp male 25 54
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_remittance_corridor_dependency
1007550250200020122023PHLBGDHNDNPLGTMSLVMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show lfp_male_25_54 across 13 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_remittance_corridor_dependency. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_remittance_corridor_dependency/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z

In countries with major migrant-corridor remittance dependency (Philippines, Bangladesh, Honduras, Nepal, where remittances exceed 6% of GDP for sustained periods), remittances smooth household consumption but are associated with reduced domestic labour-force participation (Dutch-disease-via-labour) and elevated reservation wages. The hypothesis predicts a negative panel association between remittance share of GDP and male prime-age LFP across the corridor sample 2000-2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if remittance-share-of-GDP coefficient on male prime-age LFP is negative at p<0.05 with magnitude at least 0.2pp LFP per pp of remittance share. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or magnitude < 0.1pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_remittance_male_lfp
threshold: coef_remittance < -0.2 AND p < 0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
13 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
lfp_male_25_54
outcome
ilostat:EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RTtier 2
level
remittance_share_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
total_fertility_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_remittance_corridor_dependency

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.06954, p=0.453 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In countries with major migrant-corridor remittance dependency (Philippines, Bangladesh, Honduras, Nepal, where remittances exceed 6% of GDP for sustained periods), remittances smooth household consumption but are associated with reduced domestic labour-force participation (Dutch-disease-via-labour) and elevated reservation wages. The hypothesis predicts a negative panel association between remittance share of GDP and male prime-age LFP across the corridor sample 2000-2023.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if remittance-share-of-GDP coefficient on male prime-age LFP is negative at p<0.05 with magnitude at least 0.2pp LFP per pp of remittance share. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or magnitude < 0.1pp.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_remittance_male_lfp

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.06954
  • Std error: 0.0925
  • p-value: 0.453
  • Observations: 288, countries: 12
  • Within R²: 0.279
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • ilostat:EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RT → lfp_male_25_54 (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=10464)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS → remittance_share_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8867)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.IN → total_fertility_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14445)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.