IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy

Singapore's tiered Employment Pass / S Pass / Work Permit migration regime selects strongly on skill and produces one of the world's highest foreign-born population shares (~38% by 2020) without comparable native employment displacement.

The hypothesis tests whether Singapore's per-capita output growth 1990-2023 contains a measurable foreign-skill contribution above non-Singapore Asian comparators (HKG, KOR, JPN, TWN).

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'tiered_pass_regime_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether tiered pass regime indicator is actually linked to better or worse real income per capita growth from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'tiered_pass_regime_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tiered pass regime indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Foreign born share population
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy
1007550250199020072023SGPHKGKORJPNTWNMYS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 6 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:35Z

Singapore's tiered Employment Pass / S Pass / Work Permit migration regime selects strongly on skill and produces one of the world's highest foreign-born population shares (~38% by 2020) without comparable native employment displacement. The hypothesis tests whether Singapore's per-capita output growth 1990-2023 contains a measurable foreign-skill contribution above non-Singapore Asian comparators (HKG, KOR, JPN, TWN).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SGP foreign-born share is at least 20pp above the comparator panel mean AND SGP per-capita growth exceeds comparator mean by at least 1pp annualised over 1990-2023, with the migration channel accounting for at least 25% of the per-capita growth gap in decomposition. REFUTED if foreign-born premium < 10pp or migration channel < 10% of growth gap.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_singapore_skill_migration_premium
threshold: sgp_foreign_premium >= 20.0 AND growth_gap >= 1.0 AND migration_share >= 0.25

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
foreign_born_share_population
outcome
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level
tiered_pass_regime_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for SGP; 0 for comparatorstier 5
indicator
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
tertiary_attainment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_singapore_high_skill_migration_policy

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'tiered_pass_regime_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's tiered Employment Pass / S Pass / Work Permit migration regime selects strongly on skill and produces one of the world's highest foreign-born population shares (~38% by 2020) without comparable native employment displacement. The hypothesis tests whether Singapore's per-capita output growth 1990-2023 contains a measurable foreign-skill contribution above non-Singapore Asian comparators (HKG, KOR, JPN, TWN).
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SGP foreign-born share is at least 20pp above the comparator panel mean AND SGP per-capita growth exceeds comparator mean by at least 1pp annualised over 1990-2023, with the migration channel accounting for at least 25% of the per-capita growth gap in decomposition. REFUTED if foreign-born premium < 10pp or migration channel < 10% of growth gap.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_singapore_skill_migration_premium

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'tiered_pass_regime_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → foreign_born_share_population (outcome, publisher=un_desa, n=16)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for SGP; 0 for comparators → tiered_pass_regime_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=204)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZS → tertiary_attainment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1403)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:35+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.