IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window

Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic-dividend window (defined as the period of rising working- age share following fertility transition) opened for most countries 2000-2020 and is projected to extend through 2050.

The hypothesis predicts (a) measurable working-age share rises in SSA panel 2000-2023, (b) per-capita growth response per pp working-age-share increase is positive but smaller than the East Asian benchmark, conditional on institutional quality. Below a governance-effectiveness threshold, the dividend fails to translate to per-capita growth.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window

PARTIAL — coef=+0.3356, p=0.181 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.3356, p=0.181 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Working age population share
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window
1007550250199020072023NGAKENETHGHATZAUGASEN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 20 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic-dividend window (defined as the period of rising working- age share following fertility transition) opened for most countries 2000-2020 and is projected to extend through 2050. The hypothesis predicts (a) measurable working-age share rises in SSA panel 2000-2023, (b) per-capita growth response per pp working-age-share increase is positive but smaller than the East Asian benchmark, conditional on institutional quality. Below a governance-effectiveness threshold, the dividend fails to translate to per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if (a) working-age-share coefficient is positive and significant for the high-governance tertile, (b) interaction term between working-age share and governance tertile is significant at p<0.10, AND (c) low-governance tertile coefficient is indistinguishable from zero. REFUTED if the dividend operates uniformly regardless of governance OR fails to operate at any governance level.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_ssa_dividend_with_governance_interaction
threshold: coef_wap_high_gov > 0 AND interaction_p < 0.10 AND coef_wap_low_gov_p > 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE with interaction between working-age share and government-effectiveness tertile to test institutional moderation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
working_age_population_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
secondary_completion_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CMPT.LO.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_ssa_demographic_dividend_window

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.3356, p=0.181 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic-dividend window (defined as the period of rising working- age share following fertility transition) opened for most countries 2000-2020 and is projected to extend through 2050. The hypothesis predicts (a) measurable working-age share rises in SSA panel 2000-2023, (b) per-capita growth response per pp working-age-share increase is positive but smaller than the East Asian benchmark, conditional on institutional quality. Below a governance-effectiveness threshold, the dividend fails to translate to per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if (a) working-age-share coefficient is positive and significant for the high-governance tertile, (b) interaction term between working-age share and governance tertile is significant at p<0.10, AND (c) low-governance tertile coefficient is indistinguishable from zero. REFUTED if the dividend operates uniformly regardless of governance OR fails to operate at any governance level.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_ssa_dividend_with_governance_interaction

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.3356
  • Std error: 0.2506
  • p-value: 0.181
  • Observations: 443, countries: 19
  • Within R²: -0.0469
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CMPT.LO.ZS (controls, name=secondary_completion_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.