IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption

Sweden absorbed approximately 163,000 asylum applicants in 2015 (~1.6% of population in one year).

The hypothesis tests (a) whether the inflow produced a persistent foreign-born employment gap exceeding the OECD destination median, (b) whether fiscal-burden indicators (per-capita social-protection spending) showed a measurable post-2015 increase, and (c) whether labour-market integration outcomes 2015-2023 were below the Swedish pre-2015 refugee-cohort baseline.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+1.68, p=0.00164; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether refugee inflow event indicator is actually linked to better or worse foreign native employment gap from 2010 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=+1.68, p=0.00164; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Refugee inflow event indicator
What we checked
  • Foreign native employment gap
  • Social protection per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption
1007550250201020172023SWENORDNKFINNLDDEUAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show foreign_native_employment_gap across 8 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:09:41Z

Sweden absorbed approximately 163,000 asylum applicants in 2015 (~1.6% of population in one year). The hypothesis tests (a) whether the inflow produced a persistent foreign-born employment gap exceeding the OECD destination median, (b) whether fiscal-burden indicators (per-capita social-protection spending) showed a measurable post-2015 increase, and (c) whether labour-market integration outcomes 2015-2023 were below the Swedish pre-2015 refugee-cohort baseline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if SWE foreign-native employment gap widens by at least 3pp post-2015 relative to comparator panel, AND per-capita social-protection spending shows a structural break > 5% above pre-2015 trend. REFUTED if employment gap does not widen or social-protection break < 2%.

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_sweden_2015_absorption
threshold: employment_gap_widening >= 3.0 AND social_protection_break >= 0.05

Method

Template
event_study
Sample
8 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Event-study around 2015-2016 for SWE, comparator panel of Nordic + DEU/NLD/AUT/BEL; pre-period 2010-2014, event 2015-2016, post-period 2017-2023.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
foreign_native_employment_gap
outcome
eurostat:lfsa_ergantier 1
difference
social_protection_per_capita
outcome
eurostat:spr_exp_sumtier 1
log
refugee_inflow_event_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator pulses 2015-2016 for SWEtier 5
indicator
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_sweden_2015_refugee_absorption

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+1.68, p=0.00164; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Sweden absorbed approximately 163,000 asylum applicants in 2015 (~1.6% of population in one year). The hypothesis tests (a) whether the inflow produced a persistent foreign-born employment gap exceeding the OECD destination median, (b) whether fiscal-burden indicators (per-capita social-protection spending) showed a measurable post-2015 increase, and (c) whether labour-market integration outcomes 2015-2023 were below the Swedish pre-2015 refugee-cohort baseline.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if SWE foreign-native employment gap widens by at least 3pp post-2015 relative to comparator panel, AND per-capita social-protection spending shows a structural break > 5% above pre-2015 trend. REFUTED if employment gap does not widen or social-protection break < 2%.
  • Falsification test: event_study_sweden_2015_absorption
  • Event year: 2015

Estimate

  • coefficient: 1.6804413690941322
  • std_error: 0.5336691351556967
  • p_value: 0.001639171314921159
  • n_obs: 112
  • n_countries: 8
  • r_squared_within: 0.9732582451447482
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:lfsa_ergan → foreign_native_employment_gap (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1032)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)

Variables missing data

  • eurostat:spr_exp_sum (outcome, name=social_protection_per_capita)
  • constructed: indicator pulses 2015-2016 for SWE (treatment, name=refugee_inflow_event_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T13:09:41+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.