IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth

The "demographic dividend" hypothesis: across countries 1960-2023, increases in the working-age population share (15-64) are associated with elevated real GDP per capita growth, with a 1-percentage-point rise in working-age share predicting roughly 0.3-0.5 percentage-point higher annualised per-capita growth, after controlling for capital deepening, education, and institutions.

Effect is symmetric: countries past the working-age peak should experience a corresponding drag.

PARTIALengine/runs/demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth

PARTIAL — coef=-0.007611, p=0.92 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.007611, p=0.92 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 36 country or place units from 1960 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Working age population share
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth
1007550250196019922023USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 36 sampled countries over 1960–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z

The "demographic dividend" hypothesis: across countries 1960-2023, increases in the working-age population share (15-64) are associated with elevated real GDP per capita growth, with a 1-percentage-point rise in working-age share predicting roughly 0.3-0.5 percentage-point higher annualised per-capita growth, after controlling for capital deepening, education, and institutions. Effect is symmetric: countries past the working-age peak should experience a corresponding drag.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if coefficient on working-age share is positive at p<0.05 with magnitude between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points of growth per percentage-point increase, AND holds out-of-sample in the post-2000 sub-panel. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or post-2000 sub-panel shows no relationship.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_dividend_with_subsample_robustness
threshold: coef_wap > 0.2 AND coef_wap < 0.8 AND p < 0.05 AND post2000_subsample_significant

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
36 countries · 1960 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
working_age_population_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita_initial
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
secondary_completion_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CMPT.LO.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_working_age_share_per_capita_growth

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.007611, p=0.92 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The "demographic dividend" hypothesis: across countries 1960-2023, increases in the working-age population share (15-64) are associated with elevated real GDP per capita growth, with a 1-percentage-point rise in working-age share predicting roughly 0.3-0.5 percentage-point higher annualised per-capita growth, after controlling for capital deepening, education, and institutions. Effect is symmetric: countries past the working-age peak should experience a corresponding drag.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if coefficient on working-age share is positive at p<0.05 with magnitude between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points of growth per percentage-point increase, AND holds out-of-sample in the post-2000 sub-panel. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or post-2000 sub-panel shows no relationship.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_dividend_with_subsample_robustness

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.007611
  • Std error: 0.07539
  • p-value: 0.92
  • Observations: 875, countries: 35
  • Within R²: 0.0817
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita_initial (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.CMPT.LO.ZS (controls, name=secondary_completion_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.