IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·deregulation_productivity_effect

Deregulation episodes (US transportation 1978–1980, UK telecoms 1984, NZ Rogernomics 1984–1993) show measurable TFP gains in the deregulated sectors within a decade.

PARTIALengine/runs/deregulation_productivity_effect

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+0.04521, p=0.015; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether deregulation episode indicator is actually linked to better or worse log productivity at constant prices from 1970 to 2010.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=+0.04521, p=0.015; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 12 country or place units from 1970 to 2010, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and sector and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Deregulation episode indicator
  • Rich-country pmr index overall
What we checked
  • Log productivity at constant prices
  • Labour productivity per hour
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/deregulation_productivity_effect
1007550250197019902010USAGBRNZLAUSCANDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_tfp_at_constant_prices across 12 sampled countries over 1970–2010.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for deregulation_productivity_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/deregulation_productivity_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:21Z

Deregulation episodes (US transportation 1978–1980, UK telecoms 1984, NZ Rogernomics 1984–1993) show measurable TFP gains in the deregulated sectors within a decade.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Event-study on deregulated-sector TFP relative to economy-wide TFP across US/UK/NZ episodes 1978-1993; sectoral TFP gain >5pp at h=10y with p<0.10 supports the deregulation-TFP claim.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, sector, year
Clustering
country
Sample
12 countries · 1970 – 2010
Evidence type
associational

Event-study (±10y window) on each named deregulation episode (USA 1978-80, GBR 1984, NZL 1984-93) on log TFP and labour productivity, with country, sector, and year FE. Country-clustered SEs. Cross-country panel-FE secondary spec uses OECD PMR for post-1998 broader-deregulation intensity. Caveat: each episode has its own confounding macro story — single-episode event studies are heterogeneous; pooled estimate gives consistency check.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_tfp_at_constant_prices
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
labour_productivity_per_hour
outcome
pwt:rgdpotier 3
log_per_hour
deregulation_episode_indicator
treatment
constructed:country-specific event dummies — USA transportation 1978-1980 (Airline Deregulation Act, Motor Carrier Act, Staggers Raitier 5
indicator
oecd_pmr_index_overall
treatment
oecd_pmr:overalltier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
economic_freedom_index
control
fraser_efw:summary_indextier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — deregulation_productivity_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=+0.04521, p=0.015; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Deregulation episodes (US transportation 1978–1980, UK telecoms 1984, NZ Rogernomics 1984–1993) show measurable TFP gains in the deregulated sectors within a decade.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event-study on deregulated-sector TFP relative to economy-wide TFP across US/UK/NZ episodes 1978-1993; sectoral TFP gain >5pp at h=10y with p<0.10 supports the deregulation-TFP claim.
  • Event year: 1978

Estimate

  • coefficient: 0.045213367405096315
  • std_error: 0.01858518307577467
  • p_value: 0.014984056860322477
  • n_obs: 492
  • n_countries: 12
  • r_squared_within: 0.8534817068570978
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → log_tfp_at_constant_prices (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6412)
  • pwt:rgdpo → labour_productivity_per_hour (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • constructed: country-specific event dummies — USA transportation 1978-1980 (Airline Deregulation Act, Motor Carrier Act, Staggers Rail Act), GBR telecoms 1984 (BT privatisation), NZL Rogernomics 1984-1993. → deregulation_episode_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=492)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_pmr:overall (treatment, name=oecd_pmr_index_overall)
  • fraser_efw:summary_index (controls, name=economic_freedom_index)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:21+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from Chicago/monetarist framing of US transportation 1978-80, UK telecoms 1984, and NZ Rogernomics 1984-93 as producing measurable sectoral TFP gains. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.