IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only

Developmentalist policy packages show positive growth effects mainly in low-income catch-up windows, while the same packages show weaker or null effects in upper-middle-income and high-income windows unless market competition improves.

PARTIALengine/runs/developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only

PARTIAL — coef=+0.1632, p=0.688 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.1632, p=0.688 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 23 country or place units from 1960 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Developmentalist alignment
  • Market competition score
What we checked
  • Five year income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only
1007550250196019922024KORTWNCHNVNMMYSTHAIDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show five_year_gdp_pc_growth across 23 sampled countries over 1960–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:47Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Developmentalist policy packages show positive growth effects mainly in low-income catch-up windows, while the same packages show weaker or null effects in upper-middle-income and high-income windows unless market competition improves.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if developmentalist_alignment is positive in low-income windows but significantly smaller or null in higher-income windows, while market_competition_score is positive in higher-income windows. REFUTED if developmentalist_alignment is equally positive across all income stages and market competition is not positive. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      developmentalist_growth_by_income_stage
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
23 countries · 1960 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Tests developmentalist treatment interactions by income-stage bins.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
five_year_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
rolling five-year annualized growth
developmentalist_alignment
treatment
movements:position_alignments_developmentalismtier 5
policy_axes:industrial_policytier 5
country-year coded alignment/intensity proxy
market_competition_score
treatment
fraser_efw:regulationtier 4
oecd:pmrtier 2
standardized competition score
relative_income_bin
control
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
country GDP per capita as share of US level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — developmentalist_growth_premium_low_income_only

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.1632, p=0.688 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Developmentalist policy packages show positive growth effects mainly in low-income catch-up windows, while the same packages show weaker or null effects in upper-middle-income and high-income windows unless market competition improves.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if developmentalist_alignment is positive in low-income windows but significantly smaller or null in higher-income windows, while market_competition_score is positive in higher-income windows. REFUTED if developmentalist_alignment is equally positive across all income stages and market competition is not positive. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: developmentalist_growth_by_income_stage

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.1632
  • Std error: 0.4058
  • p-value: 0.688
  • Observations: 583, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.0141
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_pop; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → five_year_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • movements:position_alignments_developmentalism; policy_axes:industrial_policy → developmentalist_alignment (treatment, publisher=movements, n=61744)
  • fraser_efw:regulation; oecd:pmr → market_competition_score (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4718)
  • pwt:rgdpo_pop → relative_income_bin (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:47+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.