IESET.
Hypotheses·healthcare·dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality

Kidney-dialysis markets with competing providers and outcome-based reimbursement show lower mortality and hospitalisation than single-provider models.

REFUTEDengine/runs/dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality

REFUTED — coef=+12.51 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.00654

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the healthcare rule being tested improve access, cost, or outcomes for patients, or does it mainly shift pressure around the system?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+12.51 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.00654

why it matters

This matters because healthcare claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality
1007550250198020022023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:08Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Kidney-dialysis markets with competing providers and outcome-based reimbursement show lower mortality and hospitalisation than single-provider models.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for USA from 1983 onward; DEU from 1990 onward; JPN from 1990 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+12.51 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.00654

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Kidney-dialysis markets with competing providers and outcome-based reimbursement show lower mortality and hospitalisation than single-provider models.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_dialysis_market_competition_outcome_quality

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +12.51
  • Std error: 4.592
  • p-value: 0.00654
  • Observations: 992, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.37
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11166)
  • constructed: 1 for USA from 1983 onward; DEU from 1990 onward; JPN from 1990 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1320)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:08+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.