IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·diaspora_return_market_reform

Diaspora return rates (returning emigrants as a share of the stock of emigrants abroad) rise after credible market and property-rights reforms in origin countries, controlling for income growth and political stability.

The claim applies to reform episodes in middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020 where reform credibility is proxied by sustained EFW improvement and WGI rule-of-law upgrades over at least 5 consecutive years.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/diaspora_return_market_reform

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTL']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTL']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market reform episode
  • Property rights upgrade
What we checked
  • Diaspora return rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/diaspora_return_market_reform
1007550250199020052020CHLMEXPOLHUNCZESVKEST
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show diaspora_return_rate across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for diaspora_return_market_reform. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/diaspora_return_market_reform/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-03T06:26:43Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Diaspora return rates (returning emigrants as a share of the stock of emigrants abroad) rise after credible market and property-rights reforms in origin countries, controlling for income growth and political stability. The claim applies to reform episodes in middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020 where reform credibility is proxied by sustained EFW improvement and WGI rule-of-law upgrades over at least 5 consecutive years.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the post-reform diaspora-return coefficient is negative and significant (p < 0.10) in an event-study or staggered-DiD design, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero despite 10+ years of post-reform data.

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_diaspora_return_market_reform_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Data

VariableSourceTransform
diaspora_return_rate
outcome
constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTLtier 5
level
market_reform_episode
treatment
constructed:efw_improvement_5y_windowtier 5
indicator
property_rights_upgrade
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
change_score
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
political_stability
control
wgi:PV.ESTtier 4
level
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
emigration_stock
control
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — diaspora_return_market_reform

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTL']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Diaspora return rates (returning emigrants as a share of the stock of emigrants abroad) rise after credible market and property-rights reforms in origin countries, controlling for income growth and political stability. The claim applies to reform episodes in middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020 where reform credibility is proxied by sustained EFW improvement and WGI rule-of-law upgrades over at least 5 consecutive years.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the post-reform diaspora-return coefficient is negative and significant (p < 0.10) in an event-study or staggered-DiD design, or if the coefficient is not distinguishable from zero despite 10+ years of post-reform data.
  • Falsification test: event_study_diaspora_return_market_reform_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTL']

Variables resolved

  • wgi:RL.EST → property_rights_upgrade (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • wgi:PV.EST → political_stability (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5255)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.TOTL → emigration_stock (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2072)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:return_migration_oecd_dac; world_bank_wdi:SM.INM.TOTL (outcome, name=diaspora_return_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:efw_improvement_5y_window (treatment, name=market_reform_episode) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-05-03T06:26:43+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.