Pre-registration
East Asian high-performing economies (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong) achieved superior long-run total factor productivity and manufacturing productivity growth because export-market discipline forced competitive efficiency and technology upgrading, whereas economies that relied on protected domestic industrial policy without rigorous export exposure (Malaysia, Thailand in select sectors) experienced weaker long-run productivity. The association between export-orientation intensity and TFP growth is positive and significant, while the association between domestic protection intensity and TFP growth is negative or insignificant, after controlling for initial income, human capital, institutional quality, and foreign direct investment over 1960-2020.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is falsified if the domestic_protection_index coefficient is positive and significant (p < 0.10) and larger than the export_orientation_index coefficient in explaining TFP growth, or if export_orientation does not carry a positive and significant coefficient in the full East Asian panel.
formal test & threshold
test: panel_fe_east_asia_export_discipline_1960_2020 threshold: [object Object]
Method
- Template
panel_fe- Fixed effects
country, year- Clustering
country- Sample
- 11 countries · 1960 – 2020
- Evidence type
- associational
Panel fixed-effects with interaction between export orientation and domestic protection.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
tfp_growth outcome | pwt:rtfpnatier 3 | log_diff_5y |
manufacturing_tfp_growth outcome | oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfptier 5 | log_diff_5y |
export_orientation_index treatment | constructed:exports_to_gdp_plus_export_sophisticationtier 5 | level |
domestic_protection_index treatment | constructed:tariff_rate_plus_non_tariff_barrier_plus_pmrtier 5 | level |
export_discipline_strictness treatment | constructed:sunset_clauses_and_performance_criteria_proxytier 5 | level |
log_gdp_per_capita control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
human_capital_index control | pwt:hctier 3 | level |
institutional_quality control | wgi:GE.ESTtier 4 | level |
fdi_inflows_gdp control | world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — east_asia_export_discipline_vs_domestic_protection
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — interaction term requested but no loadable constructed interaction variable is defined. The generic panel_fe runner would otherwise grade a main-effect coefficient instead of the pre-registered interaction estimand. Add a treatment or decomposition variable with transformation/source/name marking the interaction, or use a bespoke replication script.
Pre-registration
- Claim: East Asian high-performing economies (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong) achieved superior long-run total factor productivity and manufacturing productivity growth because export-market discipline forced competitive efficiency and technology upgrading, whereas economies that relied on protected domestic industrial policy without rigorous export exposure (Malaysia, Thailand in select sectors) experienced weaker long-run productivity. The association between export-orientation intensity and TFP growth is positive and significant, while the association between domestic protection intensity and TFP growth is negative or insignificant, after controlling for initial income, human capital, institutional quality, and foreign direct investment over 1960-2020.
- Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the domestic_protection_index coefficient is positive and significant (p < 0.10) and larger than the export_orientation_index coefficient in explaining TFP growth, or if export_orientation does not carry a positive and significant coefficient in the full East Asian panel.
- Falsification test: panel_fe_east_asia_export_discipline_1960_2020
Estimate
- Error: interaction term requested but no loadable constructed interaction variable is defined. The generic panel_fe runner would otherwise grade a main-effect coefficient instead of the pre-registered interaction estimand. Add a treatment or decomposition variable with transformation/source/name marking the interaction, or use a bespoke replication script.
Variables resolved
pwt:rtfpna→ tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD→ log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)pwt:hc→ human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)wgi:GE.EST→ institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS→ fdi_inflows_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
Variables missing data
oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfp(outcome, name=manufacturing_tfp_growth) — vintage not on diskconstructed:exports_to_gdp_plus_export_sophistication(treatment, name=export_orientation_index) — vintage not on diskconstructed:tariff_rate_plus_non_tariff_barrier_plus_pmr(treatment, name=domestic_protection_index) — vintage not on diskconstructed:sunset_clauses_and_performance_criteria_proxy(treatment, name=export_discipline_strictness) — vintage not on disk
Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:47+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Export orientation and industrial policy are often bundled in East Asia, making clean separation difficult. The test uses variation across countries (Hong Kong low targeting/high export; Malaysia moderate targeting/lower export discipline) and over time (Korea post-1997 liberalisation) to disentangle the two channels.