IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path

Consumer subsidies and charging-network markets predict more durable EV adoption than production quotas or manufacturer mandates after subsidy withdrawal.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['owid:electric-car-sales']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether policy or institution proxy is actually linked to better or worse primary sectoral outcome from 2010 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['owid:electric-car-sales']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path
1007550250201020172024USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:05Z

Consumer subsidies and charging-network markets predict more durable EV adoption than production quotas or manufacturer mandates after subsidy withdrawal.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
owid:electric-car-salestier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for NOR from 2010 onward; CHN from 2015 onward; USA from 2010 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['owid:electric-car-sales']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Consumer subsidies and charging-network markets predict more durable EV adoption than production quotas or manufacturer mandates after subsidy withdrawal.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_electric_vehicle_mandate_vs_market_adoption_path

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['owid:electric-car-sales']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: 1 for NOR from 2010 onward; CHN from 2015 onward; USA from 2010 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=450)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • owid:electric-car-sales (outcome, name=primary_sectoral_outcome) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:05+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.