IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel

More competitive electricity-market institutions predict faster renewable capacity additions after controlling for income, demand growth, and fossil fuel rents.

The market mechanism is that contestable generation entry and price discovery accelerate technology diffusion; the state-control counterclaim is that public monopoly planning is at least as effective at scaling clean generation.

PARTIALengine/runs/energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+0.01273, p=0.77 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.01273, p=0.77 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity market entry quality
  • Regulatory quality
What we checked
  • Renewable capacity per capita growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel
1007550250200020122024ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show renewable_capacity_per_capita_growth across 41 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:06Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

More competitive electricity-market institutions predict faster renewable capacity additions after controlling for income, demand growth, and fossil fuel rents. The market mechanism is that contestable generation entry and price discovery accelerate technology diffusion; the state-control counterclaim is that public monopoly planning is at least as effective at scaling clean generation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if electricity_market_entry_quality is positive for renewable capacity-per-capita growth at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary test uses Fraser EFW regulation or a documented energy-entry proxy where available. WGI regulatory quality is a secondary robustness proxy, not a substitute for the primary competition measure.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
renewable_capacity_per_capita_growth
outcome
irena:installed_capacity_renewabletier 2
annual_log_change_per_capita
electricity_market_entry_quality
treatment
fraser_efw:efw_paneltier 4
area_5_regulation_inverted_or_component
regulatory_quality
treatment
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
electricity_access
control
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
level
fossil_fuel_rents
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZStier 2
level
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.01273, p=0.77 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: More competitive electricity-market institutions predict faster renewable capacity additions after controlling for income, demand growth, and fossil fuel rents. The market mechanism is that contestable generation entry and price discovery accelerate technology diffusion; the state-control counterclaim is that public monopoly planning is at least as effective at scaling clean generation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if electricity_market_entry_quality is positive for renewable capacity-per-capita growth at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_energy_market_competition_renewable_capacity_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01273
  • Std error: 0.04345
  • p-value: 0.77
  • Observations: 902, countries: 41
  • Within R²: 0.678
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • irena:installed_capacity_renewable → renewable_capacity_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=irena, n=5848)
  • fraser_efw:efw_panel → electricity_market_entry_quality (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS → electricity_access (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7746)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS → fossil_fuel_rents (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11504)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Uses IRENA, Fraser EFW, WGI, and WDI sources already represented in the publisher registry.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.