IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect

Erhard's 1948 currency reform and price-control removal produced the fastest recovery in post-war Europe, demonstrating that rules-based market restoration outperforms Bretton-Woods-era rationed economies.

REFUTEDengine/runs/erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect

REFUTED — shape=TWFE, sign - OPPOSITE claim +, coef=-1494, p=9.9e-16

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether erhard currency reform event is actually linked to better or worse real income per capita from 1946 to 1958.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=TWFE, sign - OPPOSITE claim +, coef=-1494, p=9.9e-16

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1946 to 1958, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Erhard currency reform event
  • Price liberalisation indicator
What we checked
  • Real income per capita
  • Industrial production index
  • Cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect
1007550250194619521958DEUFRAGBRITABELNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita across 6 sampled countries over 1946–1958.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Ordoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:22Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Erhard's 1948 currency reform and price-control removal produced the fastest recovery in post-war Europe, demonstrating that rules-based market restoration outperforms Bretton-Woods-era rationed economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect_placeholder_test

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
6 countries · 1946 – 1958
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Event-study around the Jun-1948 Deutsche Mark introduction and price-control removal; outcomes are industrial production index, retail sales, and CPI at h = -12..+60 months. Comparator: contemporaneous rationed European economies (FRA, GBR, ITA). Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
maddison:gdp_per_capita_2011_intltier 3
log_level
industrial_production_index
outcome
academic:mitchell_european_historical_statisticstier 4
log_level
cpi_inflation
outcome
academic:mitchell_european_historical_statisticstier 4
jst:cpitier 3
pct_change_yoy
erhard_currency_reform_event
treatment
constructed:event date = 1948-06-20 (DM introduction + Leitsätzegesetz)tier 5
event_date
price_liberalisation_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for DEU from 1948-06tier 5
binary
marshall_aid_pct_gdp
control
academic:marshall_plan_disbursementstier 4
level_pct

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — erhard_1948_liberalisation_recovery_effect

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=TWFE, sign - OPPOSITE claim +, coef=-1494, p=9.9e-16

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Erhard's 1948 currency reform and price-control removal produced the fastest recovery in post-war Europe, demonstrating that rules-based market restoration outperforms Bretton-Woods-era rationed economies.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event-study around Jun-1948 Deutsche Mark introduction, h=-12..+60 months; industrial production growth >25% above pre-reform trend by h=+24 with p<0.10 vs FRA/GBR/ITA control supports.
  • Event year: 1948

Estimate

  • coefficient: -1494.46666666665
  • std_error: 186.15411749377762
  • p_value: 9.89816617136336e-16
  • n_obs: 78
  • n_countries: 6
  • r_squared_within: 0.9529107139131433
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • maddison:gdp_per_capita_2011_intl → real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • academic:mitchell_european_historical_statistics; jst:cpi → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=jst, n=2718)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for DEU from 1948-06 → price_liberalisation_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=78)

Variables missing data

  • academic:mitchell_european_historical_statistics (outcome, name=industrial_production_index)
  • constructed: event date = 1948-06-20 (DM introduction + Leitsätzegesetz) (treatment, name=erhard_currency_reform_event)
  • academic:marshall_plan_disbursements (controls, name=marshall_aid_pct_gdp)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:22+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from ordoliberal claim about Erhard's 1948 currency reform driving the Wirtschaftswunder. Human review required before promotion to candidate.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.