Pre-registration
Private-sector carbon-pricing schemes (EU ETS 2005-present) have failed to reduce EU territorial emissions at the pace implied by 1.5C pathways, demonstrating market-mechanism inadequacy.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Primary test uses Eurostat env_air_gge EU27_2020 total CO2 excluding LULUCF/memo items (airpol=CO2, src_crf=TOTX4_MEMO, unit=MIO_T). The 1.5C-compatible benchmark is proxied by a straight-line path from the observed 2015 EU27 CO2 level to 45% of the 1990 EU27 CO2 level in 2030 (the EU -55% policy pathway). The hypothesis is supported only if both actual cumulative 2015-2023 CO2 and the 2023 endpoint exceed that path by more than 10%. It is refuted if both cumulative and endpoint gaps are within ±10% of the path. Otherwise it is weakened/partial.
formal test & threshold
test: eu27_co2_pathway_gap_2015_2023 threshold: support if cumulative and endpoint gaps >10%; refute if both are within ±10%
Method
- Template
descriptive- Sample
- 27 countries · 2005 – 2023
- Evidence type
- associational
Descriptive benchmark of EU territorial CO2 trajectory 2005-2023 against IPCC SR1.5 / IEA NZE pathway (linear-budget interpolation for EU-27 share). Compute cumulative-emissions deviation from 1.5C-aligned envelope; report the gap with and without 2020-2021 pandemic distortion. Phase-3/Phase-4 sub-period decomposition isolates effect of post-MSR price tightening. Not causal — pathway counterfactual is normative not estimated.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
territorial_co2_emissions_mt outcome | eea:greenhouse_gas_inventorytier 2 | log |
co2_per_capita outcome | world_bank_wdi:EN.ATM.CO2E.PCtier 2 | log |
ets_sector_emissions_verified outcome | eea:eu_ets_verified_emissionstier 2 | log |
eu_ets_phase_indicator treatment | constructed:phase indicator (Phase 1: 2005-2007, Phase 2: 2008-2012, Phase 3: 2013-2020, Phase 4: 2021-2030); MSR activation 2019 sutier 5 | categorical |
log_gdp_per_capita control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
trade_openness control | world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2 | level |
log_population control | world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2 | log |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
eu_ets_emissions_reduction_vs_1p5c_pathway
Verdict: refuted — EU27 CO2 tracked within the registered ±10% pathway band: cumulative 2015-2023 gap +5.3%, 2023 endpoint gap +4.7%.
Registered Test
- Data: Eurostat
env_air_gge, EU27_2020 CO2,TOTX4_MEMO, million tonnes. - Benchmark: straight-line path from observed 2015 EU27 CO2 to 45% of 1990 EU27 CO2 by 2030.
- Support threshold: cumulative and endpoint gaps both greater than +10%.
- Refutation threshold: cumulative and endpoint gaps both within ±10%.
Key Numbers
- 1990 CO2: 3881.0 Mt.
- 2015 CO2: 3108.2 Mt.
- 2030 path target: 1746.5 Mt.
- 2015-2023 cumulative gap: +5.3%.
- 2023 endpoint gap: +4.7%.
Method Note
This is descriptive and does not identify the causal contribution of the EU ETS.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Maps the eco-socialist school's EU-ETS-fails-1.5C-pace claim to a transparent benchmark against an EU27 2030 -55% CO2 pathway. This v2 registration tests the pathway-pace component only; it does not identify whether any observed progress was caused by the ETS rather than overlapping regulation, demand shocks, or technology change.