IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·eu_green_deal_decoupling_pace_vs_target

EU Green Deal 2020-present emissions reductions have outpaced aggregate GDP growth, showing partial decoupling, but at rates still below 1.5C-consistent pathways.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/eu_green_deal_decoupling_pace_vs_target

SUPPORTED — EU panel shows partial decoupling 2019->2023: mean per-capita CO2 -18.3%, mean per-capita real GDP +4.6%. 13/16 countries showed both falling emissions and rising GDP. Pace is BELOW 1.5C path: 2023 mean emissions at 83% of 2019 vs benchmark 82% (gap +2pp). 11/16 above the 1.5C share.

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. EU panel shows partial decoupling 2019->2023: mean per-capita CO2 -18.3%, mean per-capita real GDP +4.6%.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 16 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post green deal indicator
What we checked
  • Log co2 emissions
  • Log real income
  • Co2 per income intensity
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/eu_green_deal_decoupling_pace_vs_target
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

EU Green Deal 2020-present emissions reductions have outpaced aggregate GDP growth, showing partial decoupling, but at rates still below 1.5C-consistent pathways.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, both required for SUPPORTED): (1) Relative decoupling 2019->2023: mean per-capita CO2 log-change across the 16-country EU panel is at most -2% AND mean per-capita real GDP log-change is at least +1%. (2) Pace insufficient vs 1.5C path: mean 2023 per-capita CO2 (as a fraction of 2019) is strictly above the linear 1.5C-consistent benchmark for 2023, where the benchmark is the linear path from 2019 = 1.0 to 2030 = 0.50 (benchmark at 2023 ~= 0.818). REFUTED if neither leg holds (no decoupling AND pace is on/below 1.5C path). PARTIAL if exactly one leg holds. INFORMATIVE: country-level dispersion of the two legs reported in diagnostics.json. METHOD_VALID: at least 12 of 16 panel countries must have both 2019 and 2023 observations on OWID co2-emissions-per-capita and on WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD / SP.POP.TOTL; otherwise verdict is inconclusive.

formal test & threshold
test:      eu_green_deal_decoupling_dual_threshold
threshold: PRIMARY: mean(log_change_co2_pc, 2019->2023) <= -0.02 AND mean(log_change_gdpc_pc, 2019->2023) >= +0.01 AND mean(co2_2023 / co2_2019) > benchmark_fraction_2023 (= 0.818).

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
16 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison of EU emissions trajectory (territorial and consumption-based CO2) against real GDP growth and against the linear 1.5C-consistent pathway 2020-2050. Reports the pace of relative and absolute decoupling and the gap to the target trajectory.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_co2_emissions
outcome
owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-countrytier 2
log
log_real_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log
co2_per_gdp_intensity
outcome
owid:co2-intensitytier 2
log
ghg_total_emissions_eurostat
outcome
eurostat:env_air_ggetier 1
log
post_green_deal_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 2020 (Green Deal published Dec 2019)tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

EU Green Deal: pace of decoupling vs 1.5C-consistent target

Verdict: SUPPORTED — EU panel shows partial decoupling 2019->2023: mean per-capita CO2 -18.3%, mean per-capita real GDP +4.6%. 13/16 countries showed both falling emissions and rising GDP. Pace is BELOW 1.5C path: 2023 mean emissions at 83% of 2019 vs benchmark 82% (gap +2pp). 11/16 above the 1.5C share.

Summary

  • 16-country EU panel, baseline 2019 (pre-Green-Deal), assessment 2023.
  • Mean per-capita CO2 change 2019->2023: -18.3% (threshold for decoupling premise: ≤ -2%).
  • Mean per-capita real GDP change 2019->2023: +4.6% (threshold ≥ +1%).
  • 13/16 countries showed both emissions falling AND GDP rising.
  • 2023 mean per-capita CO2 = 83% of 2019.
  • 1.5C-consistent linear benchmark for 2023 = 82% (path 2019->-50% by 2030).
  • 11/16 countries are above (slower than) their 1.5C share.

Method

Two dispositive primary tests:

  1. Relative decoupling: mean log-change of OWID per-capita CO2 from 2019 to 2023 (≤ -2%) AND mean log-change of WDI per-capita real GDP (≥ +1%) over the same window.
  2. Pace gap: mean ratio of 2023 per-capita CO2 to 2019 per-capita CO2, compared against a linear 1.5C-consistent benchmark (path 2019 = 1.0 to 2030 = 0.50, so benchmark at 2023 ≈ 0.818).

Real GDP per capita is constructed as NY.GDP.MKTP.KD / SP.POP.TOTL to keep the comparison on a per-capita basis (CO2 series is already per-capita).

Caveat (from spec.disclosure): territorial CO2 (OWID convention) ignores carbon content of imports; consumption-based EU emissions may show a smaller decline. The linear 1.5C benchmark is a permissive reading of fast-mitigation IPCC SSP1-1.9 — slower scenarios require steeper near-term cuts and would push the benchmark fraction lower (making the 'pace insufficient' leg easier to satisfy).

Data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL
  • owid:co2-emissions-per-capita

Notes

Seeded from a degrowth claim that EU Green Deal achieves partial but insufficient decoupling. Descriptive trajectory comparison; human review needed to choose between territorial vs consumption-based emissions before pre-registration.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.