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Hypotheses·energy·eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism

EU Green Deal 2020-present production-side regulation produced faster sectoral emissions reductions than previous EU-ETS price-mechanism-only approaches.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory', 'eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether green deal post 2020 indicator is actually linked to better or worse log sectoral co2 emissions from 2005 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory', 'eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 27 country or place units from 2005 to 2023, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and sector and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Green deal post 2020 indicator
  • Ets phase4 price tightening
What we checked
  • Log sectoral co2 emissions
  • Ets verified emissions sector
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism
1007550250200520142023AUTBELBGRHRVCYPCZEDNK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_sectoral_co2_emissions across 27 sampled countries over 2005–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Eco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:02:33Z

EU Green Deal 2020-present production-side regulation produced faster sectoral emissions reductions than previous EU-ETS price-mechanism-only approaches.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Sectoral emissions DiD comparing EU-ETS-only sectors (pre-2020) to Green-Deal-regulated sectors (post-2020) over EEA inventory data 2005-2023; sector+year FE, sector-clustered SEs. Refute if Green-Deal-sector post-2020 emissions decline rate not >1.5x ETS-only pre-2020 decline rate at p<0.10 OR if effect disappears net of REPowerEU/Phase-4 ETS price tightening.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, sector, year
Clustering
sector
Sample
27 countries · 2005 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Sectoral DiD / event study comparing pre-vs-post-2020 emissions decline rates in Green-Deal-regulated sectors versus ETS-only sectors. Country, sector, and year FE; sector-clustered SEs. Secondary spec partials out Phase-4 ETS price tightening to separate Green-Deal regulation channel from contemporaneous price-mechanism strengthening. 3-year post window is short — flagged as identification limit.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_sectoral_co2_emissions
outcome
eea:greenhouse_gas_inventorytier 2
log
ets_verified_emissions_sector
outcome
eea:eu_ets_verified_emissionstier 2
log
green_deal_post_2020_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 2020 in Green-Deal-regulated sectors (CBAM-listed industries, transport, buildings); 0 otherwtier 5
indicator
ets_phase4_price_tightening
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 2021 (Phase-4 launch and post-MSR price >= EUR 50/t threshold).tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eu_green_deal_vs_ets_emissions_mechanism

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory', 'eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: EU Green Deal 2020-present production-side regulation produced faster sectoral emissions reductions than previous EU-ETS price-mechanism-only approaches.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Sectoral emissions DiD comparing EU-ETS-only sectors (pre-2020) to Green-Deal-regulated sectors (post-2020) over EEA inventory data 2005-2023; sector+year FE, sector-clustered SEs. Refute if Green-Deal-sector post-2020 emissions decline rate not >1.5x ETS-only pre-2020 decline rate at p<0.10 OR if effect disappears net of REPowerEU/Phase-4 ETS price tightening.
  • Event year: (not extracted)

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory', 'eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for years >= 2020 in Green-Deal-regulated sectors (CBAM-listed industries, transport, buildings); 0 otherwise. → green_deal_post_2020_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=513)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for years >= 2021 (Phase-4 launch and post-MSR price >= EUR 50/t threshold). → ets_phase4_price_tightening (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=513)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory (outcome, name=log_sectoral_co2_emissions)
  • eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions (outcome, name=ets_verified_emissions_sector)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:33+00:00

Notes

Maps the eco-socialist school's Green-Deal-beats-ETS claim to a pre-vs-post-2020 sectoral emissions trajectory comparison. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.