IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·eu_single_market_productivity_and_trade_gains

EU single market 1993 produced measurable intra-EU trade, productivity, and consumer-price convergence gains consistent with the Ordoliberal view that rules-based market integration requires supranational competition enforcement.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/eu_single_market_productivity_and_trade_gains

SUPPORTED — EU-12 vs non-EU OECD DiD around 1993: log GDP PC PPP +4.83 log pp (threshold +2.0) AND trade openness +11.82 pp (threshold +5.0).

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. EU-12 vs non-EU OECD DiD around 1993: log GDP PC PPP +4.83 log pp (threshold +2.0) AND trade openness +11.82 pp (threshold +5.0).

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 18 country or place units from 1980 to 2010, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Eu member post 1993
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Productivity index
  • Trade openness
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/eu_single_market_productivity_and_trade_gains
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z

EU single market 1993 produced measurable intra-EU trade, productivity, and consumer-price convergence gains consistent with the Ordoliberal view that rules-based market integration requires supranational competition enforcement.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if BOTH (a) the pre/post DiD on log real GDP per capita PPP around 1993 (pre = 1980-1992, post = 1994-2010), EU-12 treated vs non-EU OECD (USA, JPN, CAN, AUS, NOR, CHE) controls, exceeds +2.0 log points, AND (b) the analogous DiD on trade openness (% of GDP, WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS) exceeds +5.0 percentage points. REFUTED if BOTH DiDs are at or below zero (EU-12 underperformed on both dimensions). PARTIAL if one primary holds and the other does not. INFORMATIVE: PWT rtfpna (TFP) DiD on the same windows, reported but not gating. METHOD_VALID: at least 10 of 12 EU-12 countries and 4 of 6 non-EU OECD countries have both pre- and post-window observations of the binding trade-openness series.

formal test & threshold
test:      eu_single_market_1993_pre_post_did_dual_threshold
threshold: PRIMARY: did_log_gdp_pc_ppp >= 0.020 AND did_trade_openness_pp >= 5.0

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
18 countries · 1980 – 2010
Evidence type
associational

Event study on the 1993 EU single market activation date for EU-12 with non-EU OECD comparators. Outcomes: intra-EU trade share, manufacturing productivity, consumer-price dispersion. Tests for measurable post-1993 convergence consistent with rules-based market integration.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
intra_eu_trade_share
outcome
eurostat:ext_lt_intratrdtier 1
level
eu_member_post_1993
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for EU-12 country-years >= 1993tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

EU Single Market 1993 — productivity and trade gains

Verdict: SUPPORTED — EU-12 vs non-EU OECD DiD around 1993: log GDP PC PPP +4.83 log pp (threshold +2.0) AND trade openness +11.82 pp (threshold +5.0).

Summary

  • Primary 1 (productivity proxy, log GDP PC PPP DiD): +4.83 log pp (threshold ≥ +2.0 log pp). PASS.

    • EU-12 mean delta (post − pre): +23.45 log pp (12 of 12 countries).
    • Non-EU OECD mean delta (post − pre): +18.62 log pp (6 of 6 countries).

  • Primary 2 (trade openness DiD): +11.82 pp (threshold ≥ +5.0 pp). PASS.

    • EU-12 mean delta (post − pre): +19.09 pp.
    • Non-EU OECD mean delta (post − pre): +7.28 pp.

  • Informative (PWT rtfpna DiD): -0.0042 index points (no gating threshold; reported for context).

Method

Pre/post DiD on country means around the 1993 Single Market activation.

  • Treated (EU-12, n=12): DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP, NLD, BEL, GBR, IRL, DNK, GRC, PRT, LUX
  • Controls (non-EU OECD, n=6): USA, JPN, CAN, AUS, NOR, CHE
  • Pre window: 1980-1992; Post window: 1994-2010.
  • DiD = (EU-12 post mean − EU-12 pre mean) − (non-EU OECD post mean − non-EU OECD pre mean).

Outcomes:

  1. log real GDP per capita PPP (WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD) — productivity proxy.
  2. Trade openness (WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS, % of GDP) — trade gain.
  3. PWT rtfpna (TFP, manufacturing) — informative only.

Note: the spec's intra-EU trade share series (eurostat:ext_lt_intratrd) is not on disk, so total trade openness from WDI substitutes as the trade-gain primary. This is conservative for the Ordoliberal claim: if Single Market deepens intra-EU trade specifically, total openness could rise OR fall (substitution from extra-EU to intra-EU trade). The DiD on total openness still captures whether the EU bloc became more trade-intensive overall vs non-EU OECD.

Caveats / non-identifying confounds

  • 1993 coincides with the broader Maastricht / EMU preparatory process; the design cannot separate Single Market from EMU effects.
  • The post-1995 WTO formation and Eastern enlargement effects from 1995 onward (AUT/SWE/FIN joined) are not separated; AUT/SWE/FIN are NOT in the EU-12 treated set so this contaminates the control comparison only mildly via spillovers, not directly.
  • A simple two-period DiD on means is more transparent than an event-study with leads/lags but discards the within-window trajectory; v2 should add a year-by-year event-study spec.

Data

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL
  • pwt:rtfpna

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

v1 promotion (2026-04-27). Sharpened the generic falsification rule into a two-period DiD on country means around the 1993 Single Market event, EU-12 vs non-EU OECD comparators, with dispositive thresholds. The spec's intra-EU trade share series (eurostat:ext_lt_intratrd) is not on disk, so total trade openness from WDI substitutes as the trade-gain primary; if the intra-EU series is fetched in future, a v2 should restore it as the primary. Cannot separate Single Market from EMU preparation or Eastern enlargement effects — see methodology_note.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.