IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect

Euro-area Southern members (Greece, Italy, Spain) post-2010 suffered larger output contractions than fiscal-space-preserving peers because Maastricht-constrained fiscal policy combined with ECB pre-2015 tightness produced contractionary conditions New Keynesian models predict at the currency-union ZLB.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'post_2010_indicator' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether maastricht constraint pressure is actually linked to better or worse real income growth from 2000 to 2019.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'post_2010_indicator' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 2000 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Maastricht constraint pressure
  • Post 2010 indicator
What we checked
  • Real income growth
  • Unemployment rate
  • Cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect
1007550250200020102019GRCITAESPPRTIRLFRADEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_growth across 11 sampled countries over 2000–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:15Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Euro-area Southern members (Greece, Italy, Spain) post-2010 suffered larger output contractions than fiscal-space-preserving peers because Maastricht-constrained fiscal policy combined with ECB pre-2015 tightness produced contractionary conditions New Keynesian models predict at the currency-union ZLB.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Eurozone country panel 2000-2019 with post-2010 fiscal-constraint x ZLB interaction predicting real GDP and unemployment; coefficient on interaction <0 with p<0.10 supports the hypothesis.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 2000 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Eurozone country panel 2000-2019 with the post-2010 fiscal-constraint × ZLB indicator interacted against output and unemployment outcomes. Country and year fixed effects absorb common shocks; identification is from cross-sectional variation in fiscal-space pressure within the currency union. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_growth
outcome
eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
pct_change_yoy
unemployment_rate
outcome
eurostat:une_rt_atier 1
ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RTtier 2
level_pct
cpi_inflation
outcome
ecb:ICPtier 1
eurostat:prc_hicp_manrtier 1
pct_change_yoy
maastricht_constraint_pressure
treatment
constructed:distance to 3% deficit / 60% debt thresholds, eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1tier 5
level
post_2010_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from 2010-Q1 (start of sovereign-debt crisis)tier 5
binary
zlb_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 when ECB MRO < 0.5%tier 5
binary
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
bis:WS_CBPOLtier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
external_balance_pct_gdp
control
imf:BCA_NGDPDtier 2
eurostat:bop_c6_qtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — euro_area_fiscal_constraint_contractionary_effect

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'post_2010_indicator' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Euro-area Southern members (Greece, Italy, Spain) post-2010 suffered larger output contractions than fiscal-space-preserving peers because Maastricht-constrained fiscal policy combined with ECB pre-2015 tightness produced contractionary conditions New Keynesian models predict at the currency-union ZLB.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Eurozone country panel 2000-2019 with post-2010 fiscal-constraint x ZLB interaction predicting real GDP and unemployment; coefficient on interaction <0 with p<0.10 supports the hypothesis.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'post_2010_indicator' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:nama_10_gdp; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1424)
  • eurostat:une_rt_a; ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RT → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=634)
  • ecb:ICP; eurostat:prc_hicp_manr → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=ecb, n=29)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from 2010-Q1 (start of sovereign-debt crisis) → post_2010_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=220)
  • ecb:FM:STN; bis:WS_CBPOL → ecb_policy_rate (controls, publisher=bis, n=2119)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • imf:BCA_NGDPD; eurostat:bop_c6_q → external_balance_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=10556)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: distance to 3% deficit / 60% debt thresholds, eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1 (treatment, name=maastricht_constraint_pressure) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: binary = 1 when ECB MRO < 0.5% (treatment, name=zlb_indicator) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:15+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from New Keynesian framing of post-2010 Southern Europe contractions as predictable Maastricht+ECB ZLB outcomes. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.