IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through

Industrial electricity-price inflation passes through to headline CPI inflation.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether electricity price yoy is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation from 2019 to 2025.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2019 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity price yoy
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

2 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through
1007550250201920222025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 31 sampled countries over 2019–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit b5accf8 · 2026-05-13T10:34:29Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:06Z

Industrial electricity-price inflation passes through to headline CPI inflation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2019 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Short-panel throughput screen; household/distribution claims require additional local tables before running.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
local_batch06_derivedlevel_or_growth
electricity_price_yoy
treatment
local_batch06_derivedannual_mean_or_growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Industrial electricity-price inflation passes through to headline CPI inflation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_electricity_price_inflation_pass_through

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local_batch06_derived (outcome, name=cpi_inflation) — vintage not on disk
  • local_batch06_derived (treatment, name=electricity_price_yoy) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.