IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit

Industrial electricity-price volatility predicts industrial employment-share decline.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether electricity price volatility is actually linked to better or worse industry employment share from 2019 to 2025.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2019 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity price volatility
What we checked
  • Industry employment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit
1007550250201920222025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show industry_employment_share across 31 sampled countries over 2019–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:06Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Industrial electricity-price volatility predicts industrial employment-share decline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2019 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Short-panel throughput screen; household/distribution claims require additional local tables before running.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
industry_employment_share
outcome
local_batch06_derivedlevel_or_growth
electricity_price_volatility
treatment
local_batch06_derivedannual_mean_or_growth
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Industrial electricity-price volatility predicts industrial employment-share decline.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_electricity_price_volatility_industrial_exit

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local_batch06_derived']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Variables missing data

  • local_batch06_derived (outcome, name=industry_employment_share) — vintage not on disk
  • local_batch06_derived (treatment, name=electricity_price_volatility) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.