IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress

Energy-price spikes increase household distributional stress.

PARTIALengine/runs/eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress

PARTIAL — coef=+1.065, p=0.21 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether household electricity price is actually linked to better or worse distribution stress from 2019 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+1.065, p=0.21 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2019 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Household electricity price
What we checked
  • Distribution stress
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress
1007550250201920222025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show distribution_stress across 31 sampled countries over 2019–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:06Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Energy-price spikes increase household distributional stress.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2019 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Short-panel throughput screen; household/distribution claims require additional local tables before running.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
distribution_stress
outcome
eurostat:ilc_mdes01tier 1
level
household_electricity_price
treatment
eurostat:nrg_pc_204tier 1
annual_mean_level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+1.065, p=0.21 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Energy-price spikes increase household distributional stress.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_energy_price_household_distribution_stress

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.065
  • Std error: 0.8458
  • p-value: 0.21
  • Observations: 170, countries: 29
  • Within R²: -0.0433
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:ilc_mdes01 → distribution_stress (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=822)
  • eurostat:nrg_pc_204 → household_electricity_price (treatment, publisher=eurostat, n=739)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.