IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel

Higher household electricity prices reduce real household consumption growth.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel

SUPPORTED — coef=-1.961 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0151

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether household electricity price is actually linked to better or worse household consumption growth from 2019 to 2025.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-1.961 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0151

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2019 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Household electricity price
What we checked
  • Household consumption growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel
1007550250201920222025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show household_consumption_growth across 31 sampled countries over 2019–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:07Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher household electricity prices reduce real household consumption growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2019 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Short-panel throughput screen; household/distribution claims require additional local tables before running.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
household_consumption_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.KD.ZGtier 2
level
household_electricity_price
treatment
eurostat:nrg_pc_204tier 1
annual_mean_level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-1.961 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0151

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher household electricity prices reduce real household consumption growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10; REFUTED if opposite sign at p<0.10; otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_household_electricity_price_consumption_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.961
  • Std error: 0.795
  • p-value: 0.0151
  • Observations: 153, countries: 30
  • Within R²: 0.483
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.PRVT.KD.ZG → household_consumption_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8533)
  • eurostat:nrg_pc_204 → household_electricity_price (treatment, publisher=eurostat, n=739)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:07+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.