IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel

Higher industrial electricity-price growth predicts weaker manufacturing real gross-value-added growth in European country panels, after controlling for aggregate real GDP growth and common year shocks.

PARTIALengine/runs/eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+0.01302, p=0.601 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether industrial power price growth is actually linked to better or worse manufacturing real gva growth from 2008 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.01302, p=0.601 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2008 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Industrial power price growth
What we checked
  • Manufacturing real gva growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel
1007550250200820172025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_real_gva_growth across 31 sampled countries over 2008–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:07Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher industrial electricity-price growth predicts weaker manufacturing real gross-value-added growth in European country panels, after controlling for aggregate real GDP growth and common year shocks.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if industrial_power_price_growth is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2008 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE screen using Eurostat-only annual country panels. The generic runner filters Eurostat nrg_pc_205 and national-account slices before country-year aggregation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_real_gva_growth
outcome
eurostat:nama_10_a10tier 1
annual_pct_change
industrial_power_price_growth
treatment
eurostat:nrg_pc_205tier 1
annual_pct_change
real_gdp_growth
control
eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1
annual_pct_change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.01302, p=0.601 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher industrial electricity-price growth predicts weaker manufacturing real gross-value-added growth in European country panels, after controlling for aggregate real GDP growth and common year shocks.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if industrial_power_price_growth is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_power_cost_manufacturing_real_gva_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01302
  • Std error: 0.02486
  • p-value: 0.601
  • Observations: 521, countries: 30
  • Within R²: 0.508
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:nama_10_a10 → manufacturing_real_gva_growth (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=1404)
  • eurostat:nrg_pc_205 → industrial_power_price_growth (treatment, publisher=eurostat, n=709)
  • eurostat:nama_10_gdp → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=eurostat, n=1424)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:07+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This sharpens the older electricity-price manufacturing-share screen by using real manufacturing GVA growth as the outcome.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.