IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel

Unemployment shocks raise disposable-income Gini even in European welfare states.

The claim tests whether automatic stabilizers fully offset labour slack for household income distribution, rather than assuming they do.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.2344 (sign matches claim +), p=0.000868

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.2344 (sign matches claim +), p=0.000868

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 31 country or place units from 2014 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Unemployment rate
What we checked
  • Income inequality after taxes and transfers
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel
1007550250201420202025AUTBELBGRCHECYPCZEDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show disposable_income_gini across 31 sampled countries over 2014–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:34Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Unemployment shocks raise disposable-income Gini even in European welfare states. The claim tests whether automatic stabilizers fully offset labour slack for household income distribution, rather than assuming they do.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if unemployment_rate is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 150 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if unemployment_rate is negative at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
31 countries · 2014 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE screen of disposable-income Gini on total unemployment and real GDP growth. Eurostat Gini and unemployment slices are filtered by the runner.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
disposable_income_gini
outcome
eurostat:ilc_di12tier 1
level
unemployment_rate
treatment
eurostat:une_rt_atier 1
level
real_gdp_growth
control
eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1
annual_pct_change

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.2344 (sign matches claim +), p=0.000868

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Unemployment shocks raise disposable-income Gini even in European welfare states. The claim tests whether automatic stabilizers fully offset labour slack for household income distribution, rather than assuming they do.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if unemployment_rate is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 150 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if unemployment_rate is negative at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_eurostat_unemployment_gini_stabilizer_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.2344
  • Std error: 0.06969
  • p-value: 0.000868
  • Observations: 354, countries: 30
  • Within R²: 0.172
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:ilc_di12 → disposable_income_gini (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=435)
  • eurostat:une_rt_a → unemployment_rate (treatment, publisher=eurostat, n=634)
  • eurostat:nama_10_gdp → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=eurostat, n=1424)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:34+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This is a distributional companion to the Eurostat labour-market and energy panels already landed in the local vintage store.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.