Pre-registration
Post-2008 eurozone austerity disproportionately affected households in the bottom income quintile; distributional cost was not necessary for fiscal consolidation, given alternative tax-side options.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if BOTH (a) the eurozone-periphery (GRC, ESP, PRT, IRL, ITA) mean within-country change in the Gini coefficient of equivalised disposable income (eurostat:ilc_di12) from 2008 to 2014 exceeds the same change in the eurozone-core (AUT, BEL, DEU, FRA, FIN, NLD) by at least +1.0 Gini points, AND (b) the periphery mean within-country change in the at-risk-of-poverty rate (eurostat:ilc_peps01n) from 2008 to 2014 exceeds the same change in the core by at least +2.0 percentage points. REFUTED if BOTH gaps are in the OPPOSITE direction (i.e. core deteriorated more) by more than half the threshold. Otherwise PARTIAL. INFORMATIVE: treatment confirmation — periphery 2008→2014 change in primary balance / GDP (imf:GGXCNL_NGDP) must exceed core change by at least +1.5pp, otherwise the periphery-core comparison cannot be treated as a treatment-vs-control contrast. METHOD_VALID: at least 4 of 5 periphery and 4 of 6 core countries have 2008 and 2014 observations on each Eurostat series; otherwise emit `inconclusive (coverage)`.
formal test & threshold
test: eurozone_periphery_vs_core_gini_and_arop_endpoint_comparison_2008_to_2014 threshold: PRIMARY: (Δ_periphery_gini − Δ_core_gini) ≥ +1.0pp AND (Δ_periphery_arop − Δ_core_arop) ≥ +2.0pp.
Method
- Template
local_projections- Fixed effects
country, year- Clustering
country- Sample
- 11 countries · 2005 – 2017
- Evidence type
- associational
Local projections of distributional outcomes (bottom-quintile income, in-work poverty, social-spending shares) on identified austerity shocks (Alesina-Favero-Giavazzi narrative; Guajardo- Leigh-Pescatori) across Eurozone periphery. Country-clustered SE.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
bottom_quintile_disposable_income outcome | eurostat:ilc_di01tier 1 | real_eur_yoy |
at_risk_of_poverty_rate outcome | eurostat:ilc_li02tier 1 | pct_population |
in_work_poverty_rate outcome | eurostat:ilc_iw01tier 1 | pct_employed |
gini_disposable_income outcome | eurostat:ilc_di12tier 1 wid:gini_disptier 3 | level |
social_protection_expenditure_pct_gdp outcome | eurostat:spr_exp_sumtier 1 | pct_gdp |
austerity_shock_narrative treatment | manual: Alesina-Favero-Giavazzi narrative austerity shocks (consolidation events, share of GDP) | pct_gdp_consolidation |
cyclically_adjusted_primary_balance_change treatment | imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2 oecd:underlying_primary_balancetier 2 | pp_change_yoy |
tax_vs_spending_consolidation_share treatment | oecd:tax_revenuetier 2 oecd:gov_expendituretier 2 | tax_share_of_consolidation_pct |
real_gdp_growth control | imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2 eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1 | pct_yoy |
unemployment_rate control | eurostat:une_rt_atier 1 ilostat:unemployment_ratetier 2 | pct_labour_force |
ecb_policy_rate control | ecb:FMtier 1 | level_pct |
nominal_effective_exchange_rate control | bis:WS_EERtier 2 | index_2010_100 |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
eurozone_austerity_distributional_incidence
Verdict: inconclusive (data gap) — required Eurostat distributional series missing: ['eurostat:ilc_peps01n']. Cannot test distributional incidence without ilc_di12 (Gini) and/or ilc_peps01n (at-risk-of-poverty) on disk.
Method
Dispositive test requires Eurostat ilc_di12 (Gini) and ilc_peps01n (at-risk-of-poverty) for the eurozone periphery vs core comparison; one or both are not in data/vintages/eurostat/.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Maps the democratic-socialist school's eurozone-austerity-bottom-quintile claim to a periphery-vs-core endpoint comparison on harmonised EU-SILC distributional measures. Promoted v1→v2 (2026-04-24) — original spec called for local projections on Alesina-Favero-Giavazzi narrative shocks; those shock series and ilc_di01 mean-income-by-quintile are not in vintages, so the dispositive test is reduced to a periphery-vs-core 2008→2014 endpoint comparison on Gini (ilc_di12) and at-risk-of-poverty (ilc_peps01n). The bottom-quintile-incidence claim mechanically implies both rise more in periphery than in core; treatment is confirmed informally via primary-balance change.