IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·fdi_opening_supplier_productivity

FDI openness predicts domestic supplier total factor productivity growth when paired with pro-competition domestic policy, but not when domestic markets are reserved for protected national champions, in a panel of emerging economies 1990-2020.

The directional claim is that the interaction between FDI restrictiveness (lower = more open) and domestic competition policy (lower barriers = more competition) is positive and significant for supplier TFP growth, while FDI openness alone shows no significant effect.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/fdi_opening_supplier_productivity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral data', 'world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZG']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral data', 'world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZG']

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Foreign investment restrictiveness index
  • Domestic competition policy index
Possible pathway
  • Backward linkage index
  • Technology transfer proxy
What we checked
  • Domestic supplier productivity growth
  • Manufacturing value added growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 4 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/fdi_opening_supplier_productivity
1007550250199020052020ARGBGDBGRBRACHLCHNCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show domestic_supplier_tfp_growth across 37 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for fdi_opening_supplier_productivity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/fdi_opening_supplier_productivity/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:38Z

FDI openness predicts domestic supplier total factor productivity growth when paired with pro-competition domestic policy, but not when domestic markets are reserved for protected national champions, in a panel of emerging economies 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between FDI restrictiveness (lower = more open) and domestic competition policy (lower barriers = more competition) is positive and significant for supplier TFP growth, while FDI openness alone shows no significant effect.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β3 (FDI openness × competition policy) is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND β1 (FDI openness alone) is insignificant. PARTIAL if β3 is positive and significant but β1 is also positive and significant (FDI works regardless of competition). REFUTED if β3 is negative and significant, or if both β1 and β3 are insignificant. INFORMATIVE: BIT-instrumented 2SLS should produce the same sign as OLS; opposite sign suggests OLS endogeneity bias.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_fdi_competition_interaction_supplier_tfp
threshold: β_interaction > 0 at p<=0.10  AND β_fdi_openness_main effect p >= 0.10  AND IV robustness retains sign of β_interaction.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Two-way FE panel with explicit interaction term: supplier TFP growth = β0 + β1*FDI_openness + β2*competition_policy + β3*(FDI_openness × competition_policy) + controls + FE. The interaction β3 is the parameter of interest. Robustness: (1) subsample analysis splitting countries above and below median competition policy; (2) IV approach using bilateral investment treaty (BIT) ratification as instrument for FDI openness; (3) sector-level panel if OECD STAN sectoral TFP is available.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
domestic_supplier_tfp_growth
outcome
constructed:sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral datatier 5
annual_log_change
manufacturing_value_added_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_growth
fdi_restrictiveness_index
treatment
oecd:fdi_regulatory_restrictiveness_indextier 2
inverted_scale
domestic_competition_policy_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:overall_pmrtier 4
inverted_scale
backward_linkage_index
channel
constructed:domestic-input share in foreign-affiliate output from OECD TiVA or WB ICIOtier 5
level
technology_transfer_proxy
channel
wipo:patent_applications_non_residenttier 2
per_capita
initial_log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
infrastructure_quality
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — fdi_opening_supplier_productivity

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral data', 'world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZG']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: FDI openness predicts domestic supplier total factor productivity growth when paired with pro-competition domestic policy, but not when domestic markets are reserved for protected national champions, in a panel of emerging economies 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between FDI restrictiveness (lower = more open) and domestic competition policy (lower barriers = more competition) is positive and significant for supplier TFP growth, while FDI openness alone shows no significant effect.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β3 (FDI openness × competition policy) is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND β1 (FDI openness alone) is insignificant. PARTIAL if β3 is positive and significant but β1 is also positive and significant (FDI works regardless of competition). REFUTED if β3 is negative and significant, or if both β1 and β3 are insignificant. INFORMATIVE: BIT-instrumented 2SLS should produce the same sign as OLS; opposite sign suggests OLS endogeneity bias.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_fdi_competition_interaction_supplier_tfp

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral data', 'world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZG']

Variables resolved

  • oecd_pmr:overall_pmr → domestic_competition_policy_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • constructed: domestic-input share in foreign-affiliate output from OECD TiVA or WB ICIO → backward_linkage_index (decomposition_channels, publisher=constructed, n=1147)
  • wipo:patent_applications_non_resident → technology_transfer_proxy (decomposition_channels, publisher=wipo, n=4505)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → infrastructure_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: sectoral TFP from OECD STAN or Penn World Table sectoral data (outcome, name=domestic_supplier_tfp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD.ZG (outcome, name=manufacturing_value_added_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_fdi_reg:fdi_regulatory_restrictiveness_index (treatment, name=fdi_restrictiveness_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:38+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (ready for subset) - OECD PMR overall (ready for subset) - PWT hc, WDI GDP pc, trade openness (ready) - WGI GE.EST, RL.EST (ready) - OECD STAN / TiVA sectoral data (pending) - WIPO patent data (ready)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.