IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag

The 2022-2024 US disinflation episode is partially but not predominantly attributable to the Fed's 525bp rate-hike cycle 2022-03 to 2023-07; supply-chain normalisation, energy-price reversion, and fiscal-impulse fade explain at least as much of CPI's decline from 9.1% (2022-06) to ~3% (2024-12).

Decomposition is roughly one-third Fed, two-thirds non-Fed, with monetary effect concentrated in goods and shelter (lagged) rather than headline.

PARTIALengine/runs/fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag

PARTIAL - headline CPI fell 5.77pp; non-core wedge explains 55.3% and the core upper bound is 44.7%, but the registered shadow-rate/narrative-IV share is not loaded

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fed funds target is actually linked to better or worse cpi headline yoy from 2019 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. headline CPI fell 5.77pp; non-core wedge explains 55.3% and the core upper bound is 44.7%, but the registered shadow-rate/narrative-IV share is not loaded

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2019 to 2025, using a lp iv design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fed funds target
  • Shadow rate wu xia
Possible pathway
  • Ny fed global supply chain pressure
  • Oil price brent
What we checked
  • Cpi headline yoy
  • Cpi core yoy
  • Pce core yoy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag
1007550250201920222025USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_headline_yoy across 1 sampled countries over 2019–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The 2022-2024 US disinflation episode is partially but not predominantly attributable to the Fed's 525bp rate-hike cycle 2022-03 to 2023-07; supply-chain normalisation, energy-price reversion, and fiscal-impulse fade explain at least as much of CPI's decline from 9.1% (2022-06) to ~3% (2024-12). Decomposition is roughly one-third Fed, two-thirds non-Fed, with monetary effect concentrated in goods and shelter (lagged) rather than headline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Decomposition of US headline CPI YoY decline 2022-06 (peak 9.06%) to 2024-12 (~2.9%) — total ~6.1pp disinflation — into (a) Fed-driven component via shadow-rate/proxy-FFR shock with Romer-Romer narrative benchmark, (b) supply-shock component via NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index reversion, (c) energy-price component via Brent contribution to headline CPI, (d) fiscal-impulse component via CBO fiscal-impulse measure. SUPPORTED if Fed-attributable share is in [25%, 50%] of the 6.1pp disinflation. REFUTED if Fed share <15% (no monetary contribution) or >75% (orthodox-only framing). PARTIAL otherwise.

formal test & threshold
test:      us_disinflation_2022_2024_decomposition
threshold: SUPPORTED: Fed-attributable share in [25%, 50%]. REFUTED: Fed share <15% OR >75%.

Method

Template
lp_iv
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2019 – 2025
Evidence type
causal

Local-projection IV with Romer-Romer narrative monetary-policy shock as instrument for proxy-FFR shock. Decompose 6.1pp CPI disinflation into Fed-attributable, supply-shock-attributable (GSCPI normalisation), energy-attributable (Brent reversion), and fiscal-fade components. Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 NK model used as benchmark structural decomposition for cross-validation.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_headline_yoy
outcome
fred:CPIAUCSLtier 1
pct_change_yoy
cpi_core_yoy
outcome
fred:CPILFESLtier 1
pct_change_yoy
pce_core_yoy
outcome
fred:PCEPILFEtier 1
pct_change_yoy
shelter_cpi_yoy
outcome
fred:CUSR0000SAH1tier 1
pct_change_yoy
goods_ex_food_energy_cpi
outcome
fred:CUSR0000SACL1Etier 1
pct_change_yoy
fed_funds_target
treatment
fred:DFEDTARUtier 1
level
shadow_rate_wu_xia
treatment
fred:WUXIASHADOWRATEtier 1
level
fed_balance_sheet_walcl
treatment
fred:WALCLtier 1
log_diff
ny_fed_global_supply_chain_pressure
channel
fred:T5YIFRtier 1
level
oil_price_brent
channel
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff
cbo_fiscal_impulse
channel
fred:FYFSGDA188Stier 1
pct_gdp
nominal_wage_growth_atlanta_fed
channel
fred:FRBATLWGT12MMUMHWGOtier 1
level
usd_broad_index
control
fred:DTWEXBGStier 1
log_diff
vix
control
fred:VIXCLStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag

Verdict: PARTIAL - headline CPI fell 5.77pp; non-core wedge explains 55.3% and the core upper bound is 44.7%, but the registered shadow-rate/narrative-IV share is not loaded

Exact Local Decomposition Bound

  • Headline CPI YoY, 2022-06: 8.599
  • Headline CPI YoY, 2024-12: 2.830
  • Headline disinflation: 5.769
  • Core CPI disinflation: 2.576
  • Non-core wedge disinflation: 3.193
  • Core CPI max Fed-sensitive share (%): 44.651
  • Non-core wedge share (%): 55.349
  • Fed target upper-bound hike (bp): 525.000
  • Oil YoY reversal: 52.785
  • Fiscal deficit narrowing, 2021-2024 (pp GDP): 5.494

Interpretation

The local CPI component data support the claim's non-predominance condition as an upper-bound exercise: the entire core-CPI decline is only a 44.7% share of headline disinflation, while the non-core headline-minus-core wedge accounts for 55.3%. This is not a full Romer-Romer/shadow-rate decomposition, so the result stays PARTIAL rather than SUPPORTED.

Variables missing for the registered causal design

  • fred:WUXIASHADOWRATE
  • fred:FRBATLWGT12MMUMHWGO
  • ny_fed:GSCPI
  • romer_romer:narrative_monetary_shock

Generated by engine/runs/fed_2022_rate_cycle_inflation_response_lag/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Quantitative decomposition rather than binary test. Romer-Romer narrative-IV style with Bernanke-Blanchard 2023 supply/demand decomposition as benchmark.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.