IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019

The 2013-2019 phase-in of Basel III capital, leverage, and liquidity standards produced a measurable rise in bank-equity-to-assets ratios across G-SIB and domestic-systemic banks in BIS-reporting jurisdictions, with median CET1 capital ratios rising from <= 9% pre-2013 to >= 13% by 2019.

The hypothesis is that across the panel of G20 advanced economies, post-2013 bank capital ratios are systematically higher than 2007-2012 averages by at least 3 pp, after controlling for the GFC recapitalisation pulse.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timeline']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether basel iii phase in is actually linked to better or worse bank regulatory capital to rwa from 2007 to 2022.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timeline']

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 2007 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country.

what was measured
What changed
  • Basel iii phase in
What we checked
  • Bank regulatory capital to rwa
  • Bank capital to assets ratio
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019
1007550250200720152022USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPJPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show bank_regulatory_capital_to_rwa across 13 sampled countries over 2007–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:29Z

The 2013-2019 phase-in of Basel III capital, leverage, and liquidity standards produced a measurable rise in bank-equity-to-assets ratios across G-SIB and domestic-systemic banks in BIS-reporting jurisdictions, with median CET1 capital ratios rising from <= 9% pre-2013 to >= 13% by 2019. The hypothesis is that across the panel of G20 advanced economies, post-2013 bank capital ratios are systematically higher than 2007-2012 averages by at least 3 pp, after controlling for the GFC recapitalisation pulse.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if median post-2013 capital-to-RWA ratio across the 13-country panel is >= 3 pp above 2007-2012 average with p < 0.05 in country-FE panel regression. PARTIAL if rise in [1.5, 3) pp. REFUTED if rise < 1.5 pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_pre_post_basel_iii
threshold: median_post_2013 - median_2007_2012 >= 3 pp

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country
Clustering
country
Sample
13 countries · 2007 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

Country-FE panel comparison of pre-2013 (2007-2012) and post-2013 (2013-2019) bank capital ratios. Robustness: synthetic-DiD against non-Basel-III adopters (limited but includes some EMs).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
bank_regulatory_capital_to_rwa
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FB.BNK.CAPA.ZStier 2
level_pct_rwa
bank_capital_to_assets_ratio
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FB.BNK.CAPA.ZStier 2
bis:WS_BANK_CAPtier 2
level
basel_iii_phase_in
treatment
constructed:indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timelinetier 5
event_phase
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
yoy_pct
bank_npl_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:FB.AST.NPER.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — financial_basel_iii_capital_buildup_2013_2019

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timeline']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The 2013-2019 phase-in of Basel III capital, leverage, and liquidity standards produced a measurable rise in bank-equity-to-assets ratios across G-SIB and domestic-systemic banks in BIS-reporting jurisdictions, with median CET1 capital ratios rising from <= 9% pre-2013 to >= 13% by 2019. The hypothesis is that across the panel of G20 advanced economies, post-2013 bank capital ratios are systematically higher than 2007-2012 averages by at least 3 pp, after controlling for the GFC recapitalisation pulse.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if median post-2013 capital-to-RWA ratio across the 13-country panel is >= 3 pp above 2007-2012 average with p < 0.05 in country-FE panel regression. PARTIAL if rise in [1.5, 3) pp. REFUTED if rise < 1.5 pp.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_pre_post_basel_iii

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timeline']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS → bank_regulatory_capital_to_rwa (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2061)
  • world_bank_wdi:FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS; bis:WS_BANK_CAP → bank_capital_to_assets_ratio (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2061)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FB.AST.NPER.ZS → bank_npl_ratio (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2105)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator phased-in 2013-2019 per BIS implementation timeline (treatment, name=basel_iii_phase_in) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:29+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.