IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024

Comparing the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median federal-funds-rate forecast from 2012 onwards (the "dot plot") against the realised effective-fed-funds path, the median dot at horizons of 2-3 years systematically over-predicted the realised rate during the 2012-2019 window (median dot consistently above the path ultimately realised) and under-predicted it during the 2021-2023 inflation surge.

The hypothesis is that the absolute difference between t+2y SEP-median dot and the realised effective-fed-funds rate at t+2y is, on average, >= 100 bp across SEP releases 2012Q1 through 2022Q4.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024

SUPPORTED — shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.52

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fomc meeting release date is actually linked to better or worse sep median dot t plus 2y from 2012 to 2024.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.52

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2012 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fomc meeting release date
What we checked
  • Sep median dot t plus 2y
  • Realised effective fed funds at t plus 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024
1007550250201220182024USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show sep_median_dot_t_plus_2y across 1 sampled countries over 2012–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T11:28:55Z

Comparing the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median federal-funds-rate forecast from 2012 onwards (the "dot plot") against the realised effective-fed-funds path, the median dot at horizons of 2-3 years systematically over-predicted the realised rate during the 2012-2019 window (median dot consistently above the path ultimately realised) and under-predicted it during the 2021-2023 inflation surge. The hypothesis is that the absolute difference between t+2y SEP-median dot and the realised effective-fed-funds rate at t+2y is, on average, >= 100 bp across SEP releases 2012Q1 through 2022Q4.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if mean absolute difference of SEP-median t+2y projection vs realised effective fed-funds rate at t+2y is >= 100 bp across SEP releases 2012Q1 through 2022Q4 (the 2-year-ahead window means we use SEP through 2022Q4 to have a 2024Q4 realised endpoint). PARTIAL if mean absolute difference in [50, 100) bp. REFUTED if mean absolute difference < 50 bp. METHOD_VALID requires at least 36 of 44 quarterly SEPs in the window having usable median dots and matched realised FFR at t+2y.

formal test & threshold
test:      dot_plot_vs_realised_descriptive
threshold: mean |SEP_dot_t+2y - realised_DFF_t+2y| >= 100 bp

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
1 countries · 2012 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive: for each SEP release t, compute |SEP_median_t+2y - realised_FFR_t+2y|. Average across all SEP releases 2012Q1 to 2022Q4. Also report the signed mean to show systematic bias direction.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
sep_median_dot_t_plus_2y
outcome
fred:FEDFUNDS_SEP_PROJtier 1
fred:DFEDTARtier 1
fred:DFEDTARUtier 1
median_projection_basis_points
realised_effective_fed_funds_at_t_plus_2y
outcome
fred:DFFtier 1
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level_basis_points
fomc_meeting_release_date
treatment
fred:FOMC_RELEASEStier 1
event_date
cpi_inflation
control
fred:CPIAUCSLtier 1
yoy_pct
unemployment_rate
control
fred:UNRATEtier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — financial_fed_dot_plot_realised_path_2012_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=pre_post, sign matches claim +, |Δ_log|=1.52

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Comparing the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median federal-funds-rate forecast from 2012 onwards (the "dot plot") against the realised effective-fed-funds path, the median dot at horizons of 2-3 years systematically over-predicted the realised rate during the 2012-2019 window (median dot consistently above the path ultimately realised) and under-predicted it during the 2021-2023 inflation surge. The hypothesis is that the absolute difference between t+2y SEP-median dot and the realised effective-fed-funds rate at t+2y is, on average, >= 100 bp across SEP releases 2012Q1 through 2022Q4.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if mean absolute difference of SEP-median t+2y projection vs realised effective fed-funds rate at t+2y is >= 100 bp across SEP releases 2012Q1 through 2022Q4 (the 2-year-ahead window means we use SEP through 2022Q4 to have a 2024Q4 realised endpoint). PARTIAL if mean absolute difference in [50, 100) bp. REFUTED if mean absolute difference < 50 bp. METHOD_VALID requires at least 36 of 44 quarterly SEPs in the window having usable median dots and matched realised FFR at t+2y.
  • Falsification test: dot_plot_vs_realised_descriptive

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: USA
  • cut_year: 2019
  • pre_mean: 0.5282142857142857
  • post_mean: 2.410833333333333
  • delta: 1.8826190476190474
  • log_delta: 1.5182257026525388
  • n_pre: 7
  • n_post: 6

Variables resolved

  • fred:DFF; fred:FEDFUNDS → realised_effective_fed_funds_at_t_plus_2y (outcome, publisher=fred, n=73)

Variables missing data

  • fred:FEDFUNDS_SEP_PROJ; fred:DFEDTAR; fred:DFEDTARU (outcome, name=sep_median_dot_t_plus_2y)
  • fred:FOMC_RELEASES (treatment, name=fomc_meeting_release_date)
  • fred:CPIAUCSL (controls, name=cpi_inflation)
  • fred:UNRATE (controls, name=unemployment_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T11:28:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.