IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel

Across countries that introduced loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) macroprudential limits on residential mortgage lending in 2010-2022, the growth rate of household credit and the change in real residential property prices decelerate over the 3-year window following limit introduction relative to matched control country-years.

The hypothesis is tested as a staggered DiD with treatment = first introduction of binding LTV or DSTI limit and outcome = household-credit growth and real-house-price growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-14.49, p=2.7e-184, N=99, treated_countries=1

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-14.49, p=2.7e-184, N=99, treated_countries=1

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 26 country or place units from 2010 to 2022, using a did callaway santanna design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Ltv or dsti first introduction
What we checked
  • Household credit growth
  • Real house price growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel
1007550250201020162022GBRIRLNORSWENLDFINDNK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show household_credit_growth across 26 sampled countries over 2010–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T13:47:02Z

Across countries that introduced loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) macroprudential limits on residential mortgage lending in 2010-2022, the growth rate of household credit and the change in real residential property prices decelerate over the 3-year window following limit introduction relative to matched control country-years. The hypothesis is tested as a staggered DiD with treatment = first introduction of binding LTV or DSTI limit and outcome = household-credit growth and real-house-price growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if CS_ATT on household-credit growth at h=2 is <= -1.5 pp/year with p < 0.05 AND CS_ATT on real-house-price growth at h=2 is <= -1.0 pp/year with p < 0.10. PARTIAL if one of the two outcomes meets threshold. REFUTED if both ATTs are statistically zero or wrong-signed at h=2.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_ltv_dsti_introduction
threshold: ATT_household_credit_h2 <= -1.5 pp/year at p<0.05 AND ATT_real_house_price_h2 <= -1.0 pp/year at p<0.10

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Clustering
country
Sample
26 countries · 2010 – 2022
Evidence type
causal

Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD treating first LTV/DSTI introduction as staggered treatment. Outcomes measured at t+1, t+2, t+3 following introduction. Robustness: Chaisemartin-D'Haultfoeuille event study; placebo-timing test.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
household_credit_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
yoy_pct
real_house_price_growth
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
yoy_pct
ltv_or_dsti_first_introduction
treatment
constructed:coded from BIS / IMF iMaPP macroprudential databasetier 5
event_first_introduction
real_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
yoy_pct
real_interest_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINRtier 2
ecb:MIRtier 1
level
cpi_inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
yoy_pct

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — financial_macroprudential_ltv_dsti_credit_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, ATT=-14.49, p=2.7e-184, N=99, treated_countries=1

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across countries that introduced loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) macroprudential limits on residential mortgage lending in 2010-2022, the growth rate of household credit and the change in real residential property prices decelerate over the 3-year window following limit introduction relative to matched control country-years. The hypothesis is tested as a staggered DiD with treatment = first introduction of binding LTV or DSTI limit and outcome = household-credit growth and real-house-price growth.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if CS_ATT on household-credit growth at h=2 is <= -1.5 pp/year with p < 0.05 AND CS_ATT on real-house-price growth at h=2 is <= -1.0 pp/year with p < 0.10. PARTIAL if one of the two outcomes meets threshold. REFUTED if both ATTs are statistically zero or wrong-signed at h=2.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -14.491882121913868
  • std_error: 0.5005600815119271
  • p_value: 2.699830231931242e-184
  • n_obs: 99
  • n_countries: 11
  • r_squared_within: 0.9533283609697605
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 1
  • cohort_years: [2010]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → household_credit_growth (outcome, n=9562)
  • bis:WS_SPP → real_house_price_growth (outcome, n=2272)
  • constructed: coded from BIS / IMF iMaPP macroprudential database → ltv_or_dsti_first_introduction (treatment, n=338)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (controls, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINR; ecb:MIR → real_interest_rate (controls, n=4694)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (controls, n=9066)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T13:47:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.