IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·financialisation_industry_share_decoupling

Across advanced economies post-1970, the finance-and-insurance sector's share of gross value added rose materially while the manufacturing sector's share fell, and the two trajectories are not jointly accounted for by a balanced services-sector reweighting.

The Marxian / Magdoff- Sweezy reading interprets this as a structural over-accumulation symptom: with declining productive-investment opportunities, surplus is increasingly absorbed by the financial sector. The hypothesis tests whether finance-share rise and manufacturing-share fall are approximately one-for-one in advanced-economy panel, controlling for GDP per capita, and whether the rise in finance share is associated with a fall in aggregate fixed-capital-formation share of GDP — the symptom that distinguishes the over-accumulation reading from a benign structural-shift reading.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/financialisation_industry_share_decoupling

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'post_1980_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'post_1980_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 1980 indicator
What we checked
  • Finance insurance va share income
  • Manufacturing va share income
  • Gross fixed capital formation share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/financialisation_industry_share_decoupling
1007550250197019952020USAGBRFRADEUITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show finance_insurance_va_share_gdp across 20 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for financialisation_industry_share_decoupling. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/financialisation_industry_share_decoupling/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:48Z

Across advanced economies post-1970, the finance-and-insurance sector's share of gross value added rose materially while the manufacturing sector's share fell, and the two trajectories are not jointly accounted for by a balanced services-sector reweighting. The Marxian / Magdoff- Sweezy reading interprets this as a structural over-accumulation symptom: with declining productive-investment opportunities, surplus is increasingly absorbed by the financial sector. The hypothesis tests whether finance-share rise and manufacturing-share fall are approximately one-for-one in advanced-economy panel, controlling for GDP per capita, and whether the rise in finance share is associated with a fall in aggregate fixed-capital-formation share of GDP — the symptom that distinguishes the over-accumulation reading from a benign structural-shift reading.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) the finance-share-rise / manufacturing-share- fall correlation in country FE specification is statistically zero or attenuated to less than 0.5 (i.e. the two are not jointly moving), OR (b) the gross-fixed-capital-formation share is flat or rising, not falling, alongside the finance-share rise (which would refute the over-accumulation prediction and support a benign structural-shift reading), OR (c) the finance-share rise is fully accounted for by the broader services-share rise (no finance-specific deviation from Baumol-style sectoral reweighting).

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_finance_manufacturing_substitution_with_investment_falsifier
threshold: coef(finance_share -> manufacturing_share) <= -0.5 at p < 0.10 AND coef(finance_share -> gross_fixed_capital_formation_share) <= -0.3 at p < 0.10 AND finance-share rise survives services-share conditioning

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE regression of (finance share + manufacturing share) joint dynamics on the post-1980 indicator and standard controls. Test of interest: coefficient of finance share rise on manufacturing share fall, conditioning on aggregate services-sector share. A second specification regresses gross-fixed-capital-formation share on finance share to test the over-accumulation prediction. Country and year FE; country-clustered SEs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
finance_insurance_va_share_gdp
outcome
oecd:OECD.SDD.NADtier 2
level
manufacturing_va_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
gross_fixed_capital_formation_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level
post_1980_indicator
treatment
dates:financialisation_era_post_1980tier 4
indicator
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
services_total_va_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — financialisation_industry_share_decoupling

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'post_1980_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across advanced economies post-1970, the finance-and-insurance sector's share of gross value added rose materially while the manufacturing sector's share fell, and the two trajectories are not jointly accounted for by a balanced services-sector reweighting. The Marxian / Magdoff- Sweezy reading interprets this as a structural over-accumulation symptom: with declining productive-investment opportunities, surplus is increasingly absorbed by the financial sector. The hypothesis tests whether finance-share rise and manufacturing-share fall are approximately one-for-one in advanced-economy panel, controlling for GDP per capita, and whether the rise in finance share is associated with a fall in aggregate fixed-capital-formation share of GDP — the symptom that distinguishes the over-accumulation reading from a benign structural-shift reading.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) the finance-share-rise / manufacturing-share- fall correlation in country FE specification is statistically zero or attenuated to less than 0.5 (i.e. the two are not jointly moving), OR (b) the gross-fixed-capital-formation share is flat or rising, not falling, alongside the finance-share rise (which would refute the over-accumulation prediction and support a benign structural-shift reading), OR (c) the finance-share rise is fully accounted for by the broader services-share rise (no finance-specific deviation from Baumol-style sectoral reweighting).
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_finance_manufacturing_substitution_with_investment_falsifier

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'post_1980_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_va_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → gross_fixed_capital_formation_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • dates:financialisation_era_post_1980 → post_1980_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1020)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_total_va_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:OECD.SDD.NAD,DSD_NAMAIN1@DF_TABLE3,1.0 (outcome, name=finance_insurance_va_share_gdp) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:48+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate, not pre_registered. On promotion, confirm OECD ANA finance-sector dataflow URN, secure a fetcher for intangibles capitalisation series (BEA / Eurostat) to address the under-measured- intangibles objection, and tighten the over-accumulation falsifier threshold.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.