IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent

Fiscal multipliers are state-dependent: large at ZLB, small near full employment; no single-number answer is policy-relevant.

REFUTEDengine/runs/fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent

REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, cumulative_effect=-1.569, h=5, p_h=0.0155

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether government consumption share is actually linked to better or worse real income yoy from 1971 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. sign - OPPOSITE claim +, cumulative_effect=-1.569, h=5, p_h=0.0155

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1971 to 2023, using a local projections design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Government consumption share
  • Government spending shock imf
What we checked
  • Real income yoy
  • Unemployment rate
  • Industrial production index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent
1007550250197119972023USAGBRFRADEUITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_yoy across 20 sampled countries over 1971–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:37Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Fiscal multipliers are state-dependent: large at ZLB, small near full employment; no single-number answer is policy-relevant.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent_placeholder_test

Method

Template
local_projections
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1971 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

State-dependent local projections (Auerbach-Gorodnichenko / Ramey- Zubairy) on OECD panel 1971-2023 with regime indicator (ZLB or high-slack vs normal). Regime-conditional IRFs report multiplier state-dependence. Country and year FE; clustering by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
industrial_production_index
outcome
oecd:OECD.ECO.MADtier 2
log_yoy
government_consumption_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level
government_spending_shock_imf
treatment
imf:G_X_G01_GDP_PTtier 2
yoy_change
zlb_indicator
control
derived:zlb_window_indicatortier 4
indicator
output_gap
control
imf:NGAP_NPGDPtier 2
level
policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
cpi_inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — fiscal_multipliers_state_dependent

Verdict: REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, cumulative_effect=-1.569, h=5, p_h=0.0155

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Fiscal multipliers are state-dependent: large at ZLB, small near full employment; no single-number answer is policy-relevant.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Local-projections IRF

  • Method: Jordà local projections (TWFE, country-clustered)
  • Cumulative effect: -1.569
  • Final-horizon p-value: 0.0155

| h | β | SE | p | n | |---|---|---|---|---| | 0 | -0.4676 | 0.0637 | 2.13e-13 | 1058 | | 1 | -0.3045 | 0.0573 | 1.09e-07 | 1038 | | 2 | -0.2373 | 0.0709 | 0.000814 | 1018 | | 3 | -0.1983 | 0.0681 | 0.00361 | 998 | | 4 | -0.177 | 0.0707 | 0.0123 | 978 | | 5 | -0.1846 | 0.0762 | 0.0155 | 958 |

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_yoy (outcome, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (treatment, n=10538)
  • imf:G_X_G01_GDP_PT → government_spending_shock_imf (treatment, n=7965)
  • derived:zlb_window_indicator → zlb_indicator (controls, n=1060)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → policy_rate (controls, n=1460)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (controls, n=9066)

Generated by scripts/run_local_projections.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:37+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from an empirical-pragmatist school prediction about state-dependent fiscal multipliers (large at ZLB, small at full employment). Identification of slack regimes vs ZLB regimes is delicate; needs human review of regime-dating cutoffs.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.