IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·fiscal_rule_departure_credibility_loss_effect

Post-2010 Southern-European departures from euro fiscal rules (Greece 2001–2009) produced the specific pattern Ordoliberal theory predicts: credibility loss, borrowing-cost spikes, and forced stabilisation on worse terms than voluntary rule-compliance would have produced.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/fiscal_rule_departure_credibility_loss_effect

SUPPORTED — shape=TWFE, sign matches claim +, coef=+42.93, p=4.41e-79

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fiscal rule departure event is actually linked to better or worse sovereign yield spread vs bund from 2001 to 2019.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=TWFE, sign matches claim +, coef=+42.93, p=4.41e-79

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 2001 to 2019, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and date.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fiscal rule departure event
  • Edp active indicator
What we checked
  • Sovereign yield spread vs bund
  • Sovereign cds 5y
  • Gross debt pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/fiscal_rule_departure_credibility_loss_effect
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Ordoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:04:24Z

Post-2010 Southern-European departures from euro fiscal rules (Greece 2001–2009) produced the specific pattern Ordoliberal theory predicts: credibility loss, borrowing-cost spikes, and forced stabilisation on worse terms than voluntary rule-compliance would have produced.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      fiscal_rule_departure_credibility_loss_effect_placeholder_test

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, date
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 2001 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Event study around documented fiscal-rule departure dates in Greece (2009 budget revisions) and Eurozone periphery, with sovereign-yield spreads as primary outcome. Daily/monthly sovereign-bond panel across the 2010 crisis window.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
sovereign_yield_spread_vs_bund
outcome
ecb:IRStier 1
fred:IRLTLT01DEM156Ntier 1
bp_spread_over_bund
sovereign_cds_5y
outcome
bis:WS_DEBT_SEC2tier 2
bp_level
gross_debt_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
eurostat:gov_10dd_ggdtier 1
pct_gdp
primary_balance_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
pct_gdp
fiscal_rule_departure_event
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 in country-quarter of documented Excessive-Deficit-Procedure escalation, formal SGP breach declaration, ortier 5
binary
edp_active_indicator
treatment
eurostat:gov_proc_edptier 1
binary
real_gdp_growth
control
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
eurostat:nama_10_gdptier 1
pct_yoy
ecb_policy_rate
control
ecb:FMtier 1
level
vix
control
fred:VIXCLStier 1
level
current_account_pct_gdp
control
imf:BCA_NGDPDtier 2
eurostat:bop_c6_qtier 1
pct_gdp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — fiscal_rule_departure_credibility_loss_effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=TWFE, sign matches claim +, coef=+42.93, p=4.41e-79

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-2010 Southern-European departures from euro fiscal rules (Greece 2001–2009) produced the specific pattern Ordoliberal theory predicts: credibility loss, borrowing-cost spikes, and forced stabilisation on worse terms than voluntary rule-compliance would have produced.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event study of 10y sovereign-yield-vs-Bund spreads (ecb:IRS) around documented EDP-escalation and SGP-breach dates in eurozone periphery 2001-2019; country-clustered SEs, country+date FE, OMT window dropped. Refute if cumulative spread response at h=20 trading days not >50bp at p<0.10 OR if Greece 2009-Q4 revision shows no break.
  • Event year: 2010

Estimate

  • coefficient: 42.9330789628622
  • std_error: 2.2802121685302343
  • p_value: 4.406979955546951e-79
  • n_obs: 209
  • n_countries: 11
  • r_squared_within: 0.8977935861768194
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • ecb:IRS (10y sovereign yields); fred:IRLTLT01DEM156N (Bund 10y) → sovereign_yield_spread_vs_bund (outcome, publisher=fred, n=71)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP; eurostat:gov_10dd_ggd → gross_debt_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS → primary_balance_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5147)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 in country-quarter of documented Excessive-Deficit-Procedure escalation, formal SGP breach declaration, or major budget revision (e.g. Greece 2009-Q4 retrospective deficit revision); 0 otherwise → fiscal_rule_departure_event (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=209)
  • imf:NGDP_RPCH; eurostat:nama_10_gdp → real_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=imf, n=10914)
  • ecb:FM (deposit facility rate) → ecb_policy_rate (controls, publisher=ecb, n=363)
  • fred:VIXCLS → vix (controls, publisher=fred, n=407)
  • imf:BCA_NGDPD; eurostat:bop_c6_q → current_account_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=10556)

Variables missing data

  • bis:WS_DEBT_SEC2 (outcome, name=sovereign_cds_5y)
  • constructed from eurostat:gov_proc_edp (EDP open/closed status) (treatment, name=edp_active_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T15:04:24+00:00

Notes

Maps the ordoliberal school's eurozone-fiscal-rule-departure-credibility claim to a sovereign-yield event study around documented Greek and periphery EDP escalations 2009-2012. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.