IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link

Fossil-fuel subsidies across OECD 1980-2020 persisted despite declared climate commitments, consistent with the eco-socialist claim that private fossil-reserve ownership structurally blocks adequate public action.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['imf:imf_energy_subsidies', 'iea:fossil_subsidies_estimate']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether paris agreement post indicator is actually linked to better or worse fossil fuel subsidy pct income from 1980 to 2020.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['imf:imf_energy_subsidies', 'iea:fossil_subsidies_estimate']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 16 country or place units from 1980 to 2020, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Paris agreement post indicator
  • Private fossil reserve share
What we checked
  • Fossil fuel subsidy pct income
  • Fossil fuel subsidy usd
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link
1007550250198020002020USAGBRDEUFRAITAJPNCAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fossil_fuel_subsidy_pct_gdp across 16 sampled countries over 1980–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T14:30:00Z

Fossil-fuel subsidies across OECD 1980-2020 persisted despite declared climate commitments, consistent with the eco-socialist claim that private fossil-reserve ownership structurally blocks adequate public action.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Descriptive multi-metric trajectory of OECD fossil-subsidy levels (IEA/IMF) 1980-2020 vs declared climate commitments; persistent non-decline post-2015 Paris with no >25% drop refutes climate alignment.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
16 countries · 1980 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Descriptive trajectory of OECD fossil-fuel subsidy levels 1980-2020 (IEA + IMF estimates), against declared climate commitments (UNFCCC, Paris). Pattern-test: persistence/non-decline of subsidies after 2015. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fossil_fuel_subsidy_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:imf_energy_subsidiestier 2
level_pct_gdp
fossil_fuel_subsidy_usd
outcome
iea:fossil_subsidies_estimatetier 2
log_level
paris_agreement_post_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from 2015-12 (COP21 / Paris Agreement)tier 5
binary
private_fossil_reserve_share
treatment
academic:rystad_global_reserves_ownershiptier 4
level_pct
oil_price
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff
gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
government_effectiveness_wgi
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — fossil_subsidy_persistence_private_ownership_link

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['imf:imf_energy_subsidies', 'iea:fossil_subsidies_estimate']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Fossil-fuel subsidies across OECD 1980-2020 persisted despite declared climate commitments, consistent with the eco-socialist claim that private fossil-reserve ownership structurally blocks adequate public action.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Descriptive multi-metric trajectory of OECD fossil-subsidy levels (IEA/IMF) 1980-2020 vs declared climate commitments; persistent non-decline post-2015 Paris with no >25% drop refutes climate alignment.

Comparison

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['imf:imf_energy_subsidies', 'iea:fossil_subsidies_estimate']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: binary = 1 from 2015-12 (COP21 / Paris Agreement) → paris_agreement_post_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=656)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=576)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → government_effectiveness_wgi (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Variables missing data

  • imf:imf_energy_subsidies (outcome, name=fossil_fuel_subsidy_pct_gdp)
  • iea:fossil_subsidies_estimate (outcome, name=fossil_fuel_subsidy_usd)
  • academic:rystad_global_reserves_ownership (treatment, name=private_fossil_reserve_share)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-04T14:30:00+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from eco-socialist framing of fossil-subsidy persistence as a private-ownership-veto mechanism. Human review required before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.