IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025

Since 1973, US nonfarm-business labour productivity has cumulatively outpaced real hourly compensation by a large margin, indicating a persistent productivity-compensation divergence.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1973 to 2025, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Nonfarm business output per hour
  • Nonfarm business real hourly compensation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025
1007550250197319992025USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show nonfarm_business_output_per_hour across 1 sampled countries over 1973–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit c86e9cf · 2026-05-02T16:36:30Z

Since 1973, US nonfarm-business labour productivity has cumulatively outpaced real hourly compensation by a large margin, indicating a persistent productivity-compensation divergence.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the cumulative log gap between nonfarm-business output per hour (OPHNFB) and real hourly compensation (COMPRNFB) from 1973 to 2019 is at least +20 log percentage points. REFUTED if the 1973-2019 gap is <= 0. PARTIAL if the gap is positive but below +20. The 1973-2025 gap is reported as informative only because the COVID/reopening productivity cycle distorts the terminal years.

formal test & threshold
test:      fred_nfb_productivity_compensation_log_gap_1973_2019
threshold: SUPPORTED: 1973-2019 productivity-minus-compensation cumulative log gap >= +20 log-ppts; REFUTED: <= 0; PARTIAL: (0, +20).

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1973 – 2025
Evidence type
descriptive

Annualized cumulative log-gap test using quarterly FRED productivity and compensation indexes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
nonfarm_business_output_per_hour
outcome
fred:OPHNFBtier 1
annual mean, log cumulative growth
nonfarm_business_real_hourly_compensation
outcome
fred:COMPRNFBtier 1
annual mean, log cumulative growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - fred_productivity_compensation_gap_us_1973_2025

Verdict: supported - 1973-2019 productivity-compensation log gap 38.3 ppts; 1973-2025 informative gap 44.5 ppts

Support requires the 1973-2019 cumulative productivity-minus-compensation log gap to be at least +20 log percentage points.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

FRED-only variant of the productivity-compensation decoupling question using OPHNFB and COMPRNFB vintages already on disk, with 2019 as the pre-COVID dispositive endpoint and 2025 reported as informative.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.