IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·free_community_college_enrolment_completion

US free-community-college state experiments (Tennessee Promise 2015, Oregon 2016) raised enrolment and completion rates among low-income students without measurable fiscal crowd-out.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/free_community_college_enrolment_completion

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2010 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tennessee promise 2015
  • Oregon promise 2016
What we checked
  • Community college enrolment rate
  • Associate degree completion rate
  • Low income enrolment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/free_community_college_enrolment_completion
1007550250201020172023USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show community_college_enrolment_rate across 1 sampled countries over 2010–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for free_community_college_enrolment_completion. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/free_community_college_enrolment_completion/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Democratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T13:02:34Z

US free-community-college state experiments (Tennessee Promise 2015, Oregon 2016) raised enrolment and completion rates among low-income students without measurable fiscal crowd-out.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on community-college enrolment rate and associate-degree completion across US states 2010-2023, treating TN 2015 and OR 2016 cohorts; state-clustered SEs, state+year FE, COVID 2020-2021 dropped. Refute if average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) not >5% above non-Promise control trajectory at p<0.10 OR if state higher-ed appropriations show offsetting decline.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 2010 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Staggered DiD across Tennessee Promise (2015) and Oregon Promise (2016) using non-Promise states as control. Callaway-Sant'Anna handles two-cohort structure. IPEDS enrolment/completion outcomes; pre-trend window 2010-2014.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
community_college_enrolment_rate
outcome
us_census:acs_school_enrollmenttier 1
bls:education_attainmenttier 1
enrolment_per_18_24_population
associate_degree_completion_rate
outcome
us_census:acs_education_attainmenttier 1
completion_per_cohort
low_income_enrolment_rate
outcome
us_census:acs_school_enrollmenttier 1
enrolment_pct_low_income_18_24
state_higher_ed_appropriations_per_fte
outcome
fred:state_govt_higher_ed_expenditure_per_capitatier 1
real_usd_2020
tennessee_promise_2015
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for TN from 2015-08-01 (first cohort) onward; 0 prior or for non-Promise statestier 5
binary
oregon_promise_2016
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for OR from 2016-08-01 onward; 0 priortier 5
binary
any_promise_program
treatment
constructed:state-cohort indicator combining TN 2015 and OR 2016 cohorts for staggered-DiD poolingtier 5
binary
state_unemployment_rate
control
fred:state_unemployment_rate (LAUS)tier 1
level_pct
state_real_gdp_per_capita
control
fred:state_gdp_per_capitatier 1
us_census:saipetier 1
real_usd_log
state_population_18_24
control
us_census:annual_state_population_estimatestier 1
log_level
pell_grant_eligibility_share
control
fred:pell_grant_recipientstier 1
share_of_undergrad

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — free_community_college_enrolment_completion

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded

Pre-registration

  • Claim: US free-community-college state experiments (Tennessee Promise 2015, Oregon 2016) raised enrolment and completion rates among low-income students without measurable fiscal crowd-out.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded

Variables resolved

  • us_census:acs_school_enrollment; bls:education_attainment → community_college_enrolment_rate (outcome, n=1)
  • us_census:acs_education_attainment → associate_degree_completion_rate (outcome, n=1)
  • us_census:acs_school_enrollment (filtered to bottom-quintile family income) → low_income_enrolment_rate (outcome, n=1)
  • fred:state_gdp_per_capita; us_census:saipe → state_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, n=5)

Missing data

  • fred:state_govt_higher_ed_expenditure_per_capita (outcome)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for TN from 2015-08-01 (first cohort) onward; 0 prior or for non-Promise states (treatment)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for OR from 2016-08-01 onward; 0 prior (treatment)
  • constructed: state-cohort indicator combining TN 2015 and OR 2016 cohorts for staggered-DiD pooling (treatment)
  • fred:state_unemployment_rate (LAUS) (controls)
  • us_census:annual_state_population_estimates (controls)
  • fred:pell_grant_recipients (state aggregates) (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-05-04T13:02:34+00:00

Notes

Maps the democratic-socialist school's TN-Promise/OR-Promise enrolment-without-crowdout claim to a staggered Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD using non-Promise states as control. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.