Pre-registration
Germany's Schuldenbremse (constitutional debt brake adopted 2009 and binding on the federation from 2016) did not produce a sustained growth or investment collapse over 2010-2019 (pre-COVID) at the single-country time-series level. Specifically, average annualised real GDP-per-capita growth and gross fixed capital formation share of GDP in the 2010-2019 binding-rule window are not materially below the 2000-2008 pre-rule baseline, contrary to the strong-Keynesian prediction that constitutional fiscal restriction in a large open economy produces a sustained recessionary drag. This is a within- country descriptive test framed as a counter-prediction to the "austerity = recession" reading at the German national-accounts scale.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
SUPPORTED if both (a) annualised log-real-GDP-per-capita growth 2010-2019 minus 2000-2008 is not less than -0.005 (i.e. post-rule growth is not more than 0.5pp/year below pre-rule growth), AND (b) mean gross fixed capital formation share 2010-2019 minus 2000-2008 is not less than -2pp. REFUTED if either gap exceeds those magnitudes adversely (a sustained growth or investment collapse). INFORMATIVE: the cyclically-adjusted general-government balance should improve (less negative) in the post-rule window by at least 1pp of GDP — confirming the rule actually bound.
formal test & threshold
test: deu_pre_post_schuldenbremse_growth_and_investment_gap threshold: PRIMARY 1: annualised_log_growth(2010-2019) - annualised_log_growth(2000-2008) >= -0.005 PRIMARY 2: mean(GFCF_share, 2010-2019) - mean(GFCF_share, 2000-2008) >= -2.0pp INFORMATIVE: mean(gen_govt_balance, 2010-2019) - mean(gen_govt_balance, 2000-2008) >= +1.0pp.
Method
- Template
descriptive- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 2000 – 2019
- Evidence type
- descriptive
Pre-vs-post-rule mean comparison on annualised log-growth and investment share. No DiD; this is a within-country single-series test. Companion hypothesis debt_brake_fiscal_discipline_without_output_cost runs the cross-country donor-pool design. This spec is the minimal single-country counter-prediction test.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
log_real_gdp_pc outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 | log |
gross_fixed_capital_formation_share_gdp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2 | level |
gen_govt_balance_pct_gdp outcome | imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2 | level |
post_schuldenbremse_indicator treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 for 2010-2019, 0 for 2000-2008tier 5 | indicator |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Companion to the existing debt_brake_fiscal_discipline_without_output_cost cross-country spec. This Freiburg-framed version is single-country and intentionally narrow: it tests whether the strong-Keynesian prediction (constitutional fiscal restriction in a large open economy produces sustained recessionary drag) survives within Germany's own national accounts. Negative result on either primary would be a meaningful update against the ordoliberal claim. v2 could decompose by federal vs Land government once a registered series provides Land-level fiscal balances.