IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973

Post-1945 Western GDP growth 1945-1973 tracked closely with energy and resource use; the assumption that this coupling is severable has not been empirically demonstrated at policy-relevant scale.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['owid:primary-energy-consumption', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['owid:primary-energy-consumption', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 16 country or place units from 1945 to 1973, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Log primary energy consumption
  • Log co2 emissions
What we checked
  • Log real income
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973
1007550250194519591973USAGBRDEUFRAITANLDBEL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_real_gdp across 16 sampled countries over 1945–1973.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Post-1945 Western GDP growth 1945-1973 tracked closely with energy and resource use; the assumption that this coupling is severable has not been empirically demonstrated at policy-relevant scale.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Primary v2 proxy test reconstructs total CO2 emissions as OWID CO2-per-capita times Maddison population for the registered Western/OECD country set over 1950-1973. Estimate log(total CO2) on log(real GDP) with country and year fixed effects, clustered by country. The resource-coupling proxy is partially supported if elasticity is at least 0.7 with p<0.05. It is refuted if elasticity is below 0.7 with p<0.05. It is inconclusive/weak otherwise. Full support still requires primary energy or material-throughput vintages.

formal test & threshold
test:      western_oecd_co2_gdp_elasticity_1950_1973
threshold: partial support if beta>=0.7 and p<0.05; refute if beta<0.7 and p<0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
16 countries · 1945 – 1973
Evidence type
associational

OECD-country panel of GDP growth on primary-energy and material-throughput use 1945-1973. Reports the GDP-energy elasticity over the postwar golden age. Tests whether the coupling was tight enough to warrant scepticism of severability claims at policy-relevant scales.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_real_gdp
outcome
maddison:gdp_ppptier 3
log
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3
log
log_primary_energy_consumption
treatment
owid:primary-energy-consumptiontier 2
log
log_co2_emissions
treatment
owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-countrytier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — gdp_energy_coupling_1945_1973

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['owid:primary-energy-consumption', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-1945 Western GDP growth 1945-1973 tracked closely with energy and resource use; the assumption that this coupling is severable has not been empirically demonstrated at policy-relevant scale.
  • Falsification rule: Primary v2 proxy test reconstructs total CO2 emissions as OWID CO2-per-capita times Maddison population for the registered Western/OECD country set over 1950-1973. Estimate log(total CO2) on log(real GDP) with country and year fixed effects, clustered by country. The resource-coupling proxy is partially supported if elasticity is at least 0.7 with p<0.05. It is refuted if elasticity is below 0.7 with p<0.05. It is inconclusive/weak otherwise. Full support still requires primary energy or material-throughput vintages.
  • Falsification test: western_oecd_co2_gdp_elasticity_1950_1973

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['owid:primary-energy-consumption', 'owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country']

Variables resolved

  • maddison:gdp_ppp → log_real_gdp (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • maddison:gdppc_ppp → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • owid:primary-energy-consumption (treatment, name=log_primary_energy_consumption) — vintage not on disk
  • owid:annual-co2-emissions-per-country (treatment, name=log_co2_emissions) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Seeded from a degrowth claim that postwar Western GDP-energy coupling was tight and that severability is empirically unproven at scale. v2 pins a CO2-throughput proxy test because the local OWID primary-energy vintage is absent while OWID CO2-per-capita and Maddison GDP/population are available for the postwar window.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.