IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold

Wellbeing-indicator measures (life satisfaction, ISEW/GPI, HDI) diverge from GDP per capita above roughly $25-35k per capita, indicating that further growth delivers diminishing welfare returns in rich economies.

PARTIALengine/runs/gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold

PARTIAL — coef=+0.271, p=0.627 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.271, p=0.627 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 32 country or place units from 1990 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Above threshold indicator
What we checked
  • Life satisfaction
  • Hdi
  • Life expectancy at birth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold
1007550250199020062022USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_satisfaction across 32 sampled countries over 1990–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

10 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:49Z

Wellbeing-indicator measures (life satisfaction, ISEW/GPI, HDI) diverge from GDP per capita above roughly $25-35k per capita, indicating that further growth delivers diminishing welfare returns in rich economies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE regression of life-satisfaction (Gallup/WVS) on log GDP per capita with piecewise spline at ~$30k threshold, country and year FE 1971-2023; falsified if upper-segment slope not flatter than lower at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
32 countries · 1990 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of life-satisfaction, ISEW/GPI, and HDI on log GDP per capita with a piecewise spline at the $25-35k threshold. Tests whether the slope of wellbeing on income flattens or inverts above the threshold.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_satisfaction
outcome
owid:happiness-cantril-laddertier 2
level
hdi
outcome
undp_hdi:hditier 2
level
life_expectancy_at_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
above_threshold_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 if gdp_pc_ppp >= 25000 (current PPP USD)tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
gini_disposable
control
wid:gini_disptier 3
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — gdp_wellbeing_divergence_income_threshold

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.271, p=0.627 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Wellbeing-indicator measures (life satisfaction, ISEW/GPI, HDI) diverge from GDP per capita above roughly $25-35k per capita, indicating that further growth delivers diminishing welfare returns in rich economies.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE regression of life-satisfaction (Gallup/WVS) on log GDP per capita with piecewise spline at ~$30k threshold, country and year FE 1971-2023; falsified if upper-segment slope not flatter than lower at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.271
  • Std error: 0.5569
  • p-value: 0.627
  • Observations: 286, countries: 26
  • Within R²: 0.0653
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • owid:happiness-cantril-ladder → life_satisfaction (outcome, publisher=owid, n=2270)
  • undp_hdi:hdi → hdi (outcome, publisher=undp_hdi, n=6314)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy_at_birth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: indicator = 1 if gdp_pc_ppp >= 25000 (current PPP USD) (treatment, name=above_threshold_indicator) — vintage not on disk
  • wid:gini_disp (controls, name=gini_disposable) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:49+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a degrowth/Easterlin-paradox claim that wellbeing measures decouple from GDP per capita above ~$25-35k. Panel FE with piecewise spline; human review needed to choose between life-satisfaction and ISEW/GPI as primary outcome.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.