IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·german_codetermination_competitiveness

German sectoral co-determination (Mitbestimmung) and workers-on-boards has coexisted with competitive export-manufacturing performance 1976-present, refuting the claim that worker voice necessarily reduces firm competitiveness.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/german_codetermination_competitiveness

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'mitbestimmung_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'mitbestimmung_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 11 country or place units from 1976 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Mitbestimmung indicator
What we checked
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • Export share income
  • Log productivity pwt
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/german_codetermination_competitiveness
1007550250197620002023DEUUSAGBRFRAITAJPNNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_manufacturing_value_added across 11 sampled countries over 1976–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for german_codetermination_competitiveness. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/german_codetermination_competitiveness/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

8 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:39Z

German sectoral co-determination (Mitbestimmung) and workers-on-boards has coexisted with competitive export-manufacturing performance 1976-present, refuting the claim that worker voice necessarily reduces firm competitiveness.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Time-series of DEU export-share, manufacturing TFP, and current-account 1976-2023 vs OECD average; no >10% relative-deterioration in DEU manufacturing competitiveness with p<0.10 supports coexistence.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
11 countries · 1976 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel-FE 1976-2023 of manufacturing VA, export share, and TFP with DEU-Mitbestimmung indicator as treatment. Country and year FE; country-clustered SEs. Caveat: skill-stock and supply-chain channel confounds — German export competitiveness is over-determined by apprenticeship system, supplier-network density, and Mittelstand structure; panel-FE shows coexistence (joint observation), not causal contribution of codetermination.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
export_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_tfp_pwt
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
current_account_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
level
mitbestimmung_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for DEU years >= 1976 (Mitbestimmungsgesetz extension); 0 for OECD comparator pool without similar codetertier 5
indicator
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:REERtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — german_codetermination_competitiveness

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'mitbestimmung_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: German sectoral co-determination (Mitbestimmung) and workers-on-boards has coexisted with competitive export-manufacturing performance 1976-present, refuting the claim that worker voice necessarily reduces firm competitiveness.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Time-series of DEU export-share, manufacturing TFP, and current-account 1976-2023 vs OECD average; no >10% relative-deterioration in DEU manufacturing competitiveness with p<0.10 supports coexistence.

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'mitbestimmung_indicator' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KD → log_manufacturing_value_added (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8624)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → export_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)
  • pwt:rtfpna → log_tfp_pwt (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS → current_account_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7621)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for DEU years >= 1976 (Mitbestimmungsgesetz extension); 0 for OECD comparator pool without similar codetermination. → mitbestimmung_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=528)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Variables missing data

  • imf:REER (controls, name=real_effective_exchange_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:39+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from democratic-socialist claim that German Mitbestimmung coexists with strong export competitiveness. Human review required before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.